Pork Trends 

Loins 

The loin complex diverged. Bone-in loins increased marginally, after falling over the past several weeks. Analysts expect the market to move higher, in line with seasonal trends. Meanwhile, the boneless loin market remains unsettled, as it continued lower. Seasonal demand is fair and relatively steady, and supply is good, according to analysts. Variable promotion is reported for the retail channel. Historically, both loin markets have experienced sharper, seasonal gains in May as grilling season ramps up.

Tenders 

The pork tenderloin market continued to edge slightly higher. Supply is good, while demand has been fair and variable, according to analysts. The USDA continues to report varying levels of promotional frequency in the retail space, with last week seeing a strong increase compared to the prior week. Historically, the market begins to show more of a propensity to push higher in May, as seasonal factors come into play.

Butts 

The bone-in butt market continued to surge higher. Supply remains cyclically strong, but is beginning to tighten, as harvest levels decline seasonally, while demand is trending seasonally higher, according to analysts. Historically, the butt markets climb gradually higher in May and sustain that support into June.

Ribs 

All rib markets were up across the board. Seasonal demand is improving as grilling season heats up, according to analysts. The USDA is reporting increased frequencies of promotions by specific rib types. Historically, both the backrib and sparerib markets climb higher into spring and summer, due to increasing seasonal demand.

Bellies/Bacon 

The belly market composite slipped lower from the prior week. The recent correction may be stabilizing, but unsettledness still seemingly remains, according to analysts. The USDA-reported frequency of bacon features in the retail channel was up considerably from the prior week, marking a few weeks of strong gains. Historically, the belly market rises between late May and late June.

Hams 

Declines in the ham markets continued, but the rate of decline slowed from the prior week. Supply remains good on a seasonal basis, and demand remains variable, according to analysts. Historically, the ham markets have tended to ease slightly in early May, but then become steady or move up later in the month and during June, due to increasing deli ham and lunch meat demand, according to analysts.

Trimmings 

Changes in the pork trimming markets were relatively marginal.
42% fat trimmings pivoted lower, while 72% lean trimmings remained unchanged for another week. Supply is good and demand is mostly supportive, according to analysts, who note that since pork trimmings can substitute for beef trimmings, there is a risk of volatility in the pork trimmings markets, as the beef market is currently very strong. Traditionally, the pork trimming markets have remained largely range‑bound heading into May, with no clear signal of a significant move either up or down, but become significantly bullish during the summer months as grilling season demand picks up.

Picnics 

The picnic complex was mixed. Bone-in picnics fell, although the correction in the market from the sharp surge in March is finally beginning to slow. Meanwhile, the boneless picnic market pivoted higher after falling for the past several weeks. Historically, the bone-in picnic market ebbs and flows directionally higher throughout the calendar year, while the boneless picnic market trends higher as the weather warms, due to increases in raw material demand.