Hero Image

Pork Trends 

Farmer's Report - October 2, 2026

 

All pork pricing trends are based on USDA data as of September 25, 2026.

The USDA reported a weekly hog harvest of 2.552 MM hogs last week. This level is roughly 2.7% higher than the prior week’s revised numbers. Running harvest level year-to-date is down 1.0% compared to last year.

Loins arrow steady

The loin markets continued with undertones, as both boneless and bone-in loins slipped lower. Seasonal demand is fair, although the market has struggled to gain any consistent traction, and supply remains adequate, according to analysts. Historically, the loin markets have declined further in October.

Tenders arrow steady

The pork tenderloin market continued slightly lower. Historically, the tenderloin market weakens during Q4.

Butts arrow down

The bone-in butt market was unchanged. This market has been relatively stable through September due to a healthy balance of supply and demand, according to analysts. Historically, the pork butt market has tended to decline during October.

Ribs arrow steady

All varieties of spareribs and backribs decreased. Historically, the sparerib markets have found better stability and support for the balance of the year, while backribs have shown more propensity for continued, gradual depreciation.

Bellies/Bacon arrow down

After a few weeks of sharp market correction, the belly market composite managed to pivot slightly higher from its three-year low, and should still be considered volatile in the short term, according to analysts. Historically, the belly markets trend lower throughout Q4.

Hams arrow steady

Upward momentum during September is slowing, as the ham markets pivoted lower. Supply remains good on a seasonal basis, with stronger year-over-year inventories being reported in cold storage. Opportunistic, value-based demand and forward needs for holiday hams have likely driven recent support, according to analysts. Historically, the ham markets have been relatively stable between September and November, trading within a moderate range.

Trimmings arrow down

The trimming markets remained relatively well-supported, as 42% fat trimmings pivoted higher while 72% lean trimmings held steady. Demand has been fair, but is beginning to slow on a seasonal basis. Historically, the trimming markets weaken through Q4.

Picnics arrow down

The picnic markets diverged slightly, as bone-in picnics pivoted higher while boneless picnics slipped lower. The bone-in picnic market has been counter-seasonally soft since early June. Historically, the bone-in picnic market ebbs and flows higher throughout the calendar year, peaking near late December, while the boneless picnic market trends lower during Q4.

The data contained in the Farmer’s Report is provided for informational purposes only, is not tailored to your specific purchasing needs, and is not intended as a substitute for any other publicly-available market data or information. The Farmer’s Report is compiled from the last-received market data provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and/or other market sources, and is subject to change without notice. Nothing herein is the opinion of US Foods®. US Foods neither assumes any legal liability nor makes any warranty or guaranty, either express or implied, regarding the completeness, accuracy or usefulness of this information.

Commodity Trends at Your Fingertips: Dive into the Farmer's Report