Soy, Canola & Palm Oil Trends 

Soybean Oil

• CME spot soybean oil futures were modestly higher through Wednesday of this week, compared to Wednesday of the prior week
• In its weekly Crop Conditions report, the USDA rated the soybean crop 57% good-to-excellent, compared to 57% last week and 60% a year ago, and reported that the soybean harvest is 46% complete, compared to 25% last week and the five-year average of 50%
• In its October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the USDA projected the national average soybean yield for 2026/27 at 53.1 bushels per acre, up from its forecast of 52.8 in September, and reduced its 2026/2027 domestic soybean oil ending stocks estimate to 1.797 billion pounds, down from 1.877 billion in September
• The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) is expected to report a further decline in domestic soybean oil stocks when it releases September crush data, according to pre-report estimates from trade analysts
• Elevated energy prices continue to lend underlying support to the vegetable oil markets, due to a firmer margin structure, according to analysts 

Canola Oil

• The Intercontinental Exchange November canola seed futures contract was slightly higher this week, following the lead of the soybean oil market
• Seasonal harvest pressure continues across the Canadian Prairies, as combining nears its final stages, though cool and rainy weather threatens minor delays in late fields, according to analysts
• Saskatchewan's canola harvest was 72% complete as of October 5, according to Grainews, and the Alberta canola harvest was 56.3% complete as of October 6, according to Alberta Farmer
• Canola oil basis offers were mostly steady this week, as the U.S. biofuel program and solid food demand continue to support the market, as reported by cash dealers

Palm Oil

• Palm oil prices on the Kuala Lumpur Commodity Exchange were higher through Wednesday of this week, but still remain at a steep discount to soybean oil on the global cash market
• According to Market Screener, Malaysia's September palm oil stocks rose 24.54% from the previous month, to 3.51 million metric tons, data from the industry regulator showed on Monday, surpassing the previous record of 3.22 million tons set in December 2018, per UKRAgroConsult
• Traders continue to monitor the development of a very strong El Niño weather pattern. Strong El Niños have a history of reducing palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia, according to analysts

Mayo & Margarine

• The CME soybean oil market and palm oil prices on the Kuala Lumpur Commodity Exchange were slightly higher this week, while the USDA butter market was steady