Seafood Trends - October 11, 2019
All seafood pricing trends are based on Urner Barry data and supplier quotes as of Oct. 9, 2019.
WHITES AND BROWNS:
The fall white shrimp season is starting to get into full swing. Boats are re-gearing their nets to catch white shrimp, as they transition away from brown shrimp. Boats with gear for brown shrimp still on will make one more cycle and that will be it for the year. According to our vendors, the brown season is well below normal.
Smaller PUD’s are becoming tight, as they have been pushed further out into the Gulf of Mexico with the influx of water coming out of the Mississippi River, which traditionally puts pressure on this category.
BLACK TIGER AND WHITES:
The seafood industry reports stable pricing on tigers. They are, however, seeing bidding to move white shrimp, thus causing a steady to weaker market.
MEXICAN BROWNS AND WHITES:
Analysts report that suppliers may have a concern on browns, as well as large size shrimp that are in very tight supply. The 2019 season just kicked off in September, and the majority of the catch so far has fallen into the 16-20 size range.
Production has slowed, as the industry points to poor feeding and a strong need for fish in the marketplace. It is reported that packers are raising prices, as the pond price for live fish has increased. Our vendors are reporting that they expect a steady flow of product starting this month.
Urner Barry reported higher prices, due to the Chinese consuming more fish because of the lack of pork caused by the African Swine Fever outbreak.
ATLANTIC FARMED SALMON:
Analysts report that the frozen market is stable at the moment, but vendors are offering some spot opportunity. Vendors also indicate that there is still a concern that 4 oz. portions will get tight, as the size of fish needed to produce 4 oz. is in short supply.
Analysts report that pricing has turned steady, with fewer offerings. Inventory is in good shape along all size portions.
Reports indicate that pricing has shown some volatility on the fresh side. Frozen prices continue to be stable to slightly down.
Pricing is stable for next week, but analysts indicate bay scallops could move higher with further receipts that would have the additional tariff associated with it.
Demand has been steady, as analysts point to the market settling into higher costs.
Pricing has moved to a steady to weaker tone, as reported inventory levels in the U.S. are in very good shape. Sources are pointing to weaker pricing for the last quarter of the year.
It is reported that pricing is showing some firmness. Reports indicate that inventory is firm behind strong demand, as other similar species increase in price.
The fishery for Pacific pollock has produced only smaller, 2-4 oz. fillets. Analysts expect that this could cause an inventory issue for frozen loins if they don’t start catching larger fish. Larger fillets 4-6 and 6-8 oz. are very tight. In addition, the industry is starting to plan for a new 15% tariff that will go into effect on Dec. 15, 2019.
Vendors are reporting that pricing is expected to continue to firm, due to high demand and tight supply, as well as additional tariffs.
Inventory levels are in good shape. Vendors are reporting that pricing is expected to firm on goods coming from China, due to additional tariffs. Vendors also report seeing lower pricing on Argentine fillets as they have reported more inventory in the U.S. than they want to hold.
(FROZEN STEAKS & LOINS):
Analysts report that tuna pricing and inventory is stable.
Analysts report that swordfish pricing is stable. Inventory levels are in very good shape.
(RED & GOLDEN):
Analysts report product is very short in the marketplace, and is expected to be tight ongoing. Gold product of Russia is increasing in price. Operators should start booking holiday needs now.
(BLUE & RED, PASTEURIZED):
Analysts report that the blue swimming crab market is seeing some price relief.
Mexico blue crab season is in full production now, for both East and West Coasts. Distributors should see more inventory imported into the U.S.
Most vendors are off the market, with very little if any product out there currently. The 2019/2020 quota has been announced; there will be an increase of 20-25%, and the expectation is the majority of the catch will fall into the 5-8 oz. size range.
Production is now over in Canada. Vendors are reporting that all sizes are getting tight with inventory. Urner Barry is reporting higher pricing now on all size clusters.
NORTH AMERICAN LOBSTER:
Pricing is moving higher on tails, as production is very slow. Vendors are reporting poor inventory levels. Operators should review holiday needs now.
LOBSTER TAILS WARM WATER:
Vendors are reporting the harvest will be off at least 40% due to the impacts of Hurricane Dorian. It is expected that overall demand and lack of inventory will continue to put ongoing pressure on this category. Analysts expect this trend to be ongoing.
Pricing is moving up, and demand is reported as steady. The fall pack continues to be down YOY, causing an inventory concern.
The data contained in the Farmer’s Report is provided for informational purposes only, is not tailored to your specific purchasing needs, and is not intended as a substitute for any other publicly-available market data or information. The Farmer’s Report is compiled from the last-received market data provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and/or other market sources, and is subject to change without notice. Nothing herein is the opinion of US Foods®. US Foods neither assumes any legal liability nor makes any warranty or guaranty, either express or implied, regarding the completeness, accuracy or usefulness of this information.