BEEF TRENDS

Beef Trends - September 22, 2023

All current beef pricing trends are based on USDA data as of September 20, 2023. Last week’s trends refer to the USDA market for the week ending September 15, 2023.

Live cattle sold mostly between $1.83 and $1.84/lb. last week. Live cattle are expected to remain steadily priced this week, according to analysts.

Last week’s slaughter was about 632K head, which was up from the previous week, and is expected to remain steady going forward, according to analysts.

For grading in the week ending September 9, 79.8% of cattle graded as Choice or higher, and 16.2% graded out as Select, with the remaining 4% being Ungraded.

Analysts believe that the beef market has peaked, and they expect softness to continue through the end of September.

GRINDS

GROUND CHUCK:

Ground Chuck was down last week, and has continued to fall this week through three days. Analysts expect the Ground Chuck market to continue to decline in the short term.

GROUND BEEF 81/19:

81/19 Ground Beef also traded down last week, and has continued to decline this week through three days. Similar to Ground Chuck, analysts expect the market to continue to decline in the short term.

GROUND Beef 73/27:

73/27 Ground Beef was down last week, and has continued to decline this week through three days. Similar to the other grind blends, analysts expect this market to continue to decline in the short term.

ROUNDS

PEELED KNUCKLES:

The Peeled Knuckles market was down last week. This week, Choice grade is down, while Select grade is up through three days. Analysts expect the Peeled Knuckles market to hold steady in the short term.

INSIDE ROUNDS:

Inside Rounds were mixed last week, with Choice grade decreasing. This week, both grades are down through three days of trading. Analysts expect the Inside Rounds market to hold steady in the short term.

BOTTOM ROUND FLATS:

Bottom Round Flats decreased last week, and have continued to fall this week through three days of trading. Analysts expect the market to be steady to up in the short term.

EYES OF ROUND:

Choice Eyes of Round increased last week, while Select grade declined. This week, both grades are up through three days. Analysts expect the market to be steady to down through September.

LOINS

STRIPS:

Strip Loins were down last week, but they have reversed this week, and both grades have increased through three days. Analysts expect the market to continue to rise in the short term.

TOP BUTTS:

Choice Top Butts were flat last week, This week, Choice has continued to be flat, while Select grade is up through three days. Analysts expect the market to decline in the short term.

TENDERLOINS:

The Tenderloin market was down last week. This week, both grades have increased through three days. Analysts expect the market to hold steady in the short term.

RIBS

RIBEYES:

Choice Light and Heavy Ribeyes declined last week, while Select grade increased. This week, all grades of both Light and Heavy Ribeye have increased through three days. Analysts expect the Ribeye market to decline in the short term.

CHUCKS

CHUCK ROLLS:

The Chuck Roll market declined last week, but this week, both grades have increased through three days. Analysts expect the market to remain steady in the short term.

TERES MAJORs:

Choice Teres Majors increased last week, while Select grade was down. This week, both grades have declined through three days of trading. Analysts expect the market to hold steady in the short term.

BRISKETS:

The Brisket market declined last week, and has continued to fall further this week through three days. Analysts expect the brisket market to hold steady in the short term.

THIN MEATS

BALL TIPS:

Choice Ball Tips increased last week, while Select grade decreased. This week, both grades have increased through three days. Analysts expect the market to be steady in the short term, then decline in early November.

FLAP MEAT:

The Flap meat market was mixed last week, with Choice grade increasing and Select grade decreasing, and that same trend has continued this week through three days. Analysts expect the market to hold steady in the short term, then decline in October.

FLANK STEAK:

Flank Steaks declined last week, and have continued to fall this week through three days. Analysts expect the market to continue to decline through September.

SKIRT STEAK:

Outside Skirts were down last week, and that same trend has continued this week through three days of trading. Analysts expect the market to increase slightly in the short term, due to an increase in export activity, before dropping back again in October.