BEEF TRENDS

Farmer's Report

Beef Trends - SEPTEMBER 30, 2022

All current beef pricing trends are based on USDA data as of September 28, 2022. Last week’s trends refer to the USDA market for the week ending September 23, 2022.

Live cattle sold mostly between $1.42 and $1.44/lb. last week. Live cattle are expected to remain steadily priced this week, according to analysts.

Last week’s slaughter was about 667K head, which was in line with the previous week, and is expected to remain steady in the short term.

For grading in the week ending September 17, 78.7% of cattle graded as Choice or higher, and 17.4% graded out as Select, with the remaining 3.9% being Ungraded.


GRINDS

GROUND CHUCK:

Ground Chuck saw some weakness last week, and that trend has continued through three days of trading this week. Analysts expect grinds to weaken in price in the short term, and then hold steady through the end of the year.

GROUND BEEF 81/19:

81/19 Ground Beef was also down last week, but prices have remained flat this week through Wednesday’s close. Analysts expect grinds to start to weaken as seasonal demand declines.

GROUND Beef 73/27:

73/27 Ground Beef has mirrored its 81/19 counterpart in both current trades and the forward outlook.


ROUNDS

PEELED KNUCKLES:

Peeled Knuckles traded mixed last week, with Select grade seeing a price increase. This week, Choice grade has increased in price, while Select grade has slightly decreased. Analysts expect prices to hold steady in the short term.

INSIDE ROUNDS:

Inside Rounds were mostly flat to down last week. This week, that same trend has continued, with limited trading on Select grade through three days. Analysts expect prices to increase modestly in early fall.

BOTTOM ROUND FLATS:

Outside Rounds declined slightly in price last week, and both grades have continued that trend into the current week. Analysts expect pricing on both grades to continue to hold steady in the short term.

EYES OF ROUND:

Eyes of Round were mixed last week, with Select grade up and Choice grade down. This week, that same trend has continued through three days. Analysts expect the market to hold steady through fall.


LOINS

STRIPS:

Choice Strip Loins saw a modest increase last week, while Select grade was down moderately. This week, both grades have continued to trade down in price through three days. Analysts expect the market to continue to see more weakness in the short term, then hold steady through the end of the year.

TOP BUTTS:

Both grades of Top Butts traded down last week on limited trades. This week, there has been no trading so far after three days. Analysts expect prices to remain steady in the short term, then weaken going into late fall.

TENDERLOINS:

Both grades of Tenderloins were up in price last week. This week, Choice has continued to see a moderate increase through the first three days. Analysts expect the market to hold steady in the short term, then see some increases going into late fall.


RIBS

RIBEYES:

All Ribeyes traded down last week with the exception of Select Light Ribeyes, which saw a moderate price increase, and the same has held true this week through the first three days. Analysts expect both grades to weaken slightly in the short term, then start to see steady upward momentum through the end of the year, due to seasonal demand.


CHUCKS

CHUCK ROLLS:

Chuck Rolls were slightly up in price last week, and that same trend has continued through three days this week. Analysts expect the Chuck Roll market to continue to hold steady in the short term, then see some price increases through fall.

TERES MAJORs:

All grades of Teres Majors were down last week. This week, all grades are up in price, with limited trading on the Select grade. Analysts expect the market to continue to see some weakness going into fall.

BRISKETS:

Choice Briskets were down modestly last week, while Select grade was up, and that trend has continued after the first three days of trading this week. Analysts expect the market to weaken in the short term, then see some increases at the end of the year, due to seasonal demand.


THIN MEATS

BALL TIPS:

Choice Ball Tips traded up last week, while Select grade was down, and that same trend has continued through the first three days this week. Analysts expect the market to remain steady in the short term, then see some weakness going into the end of the year.

FLAP MEAT:

Choice Flap Meat was up in price last week, but Select grade traded lower. This week, prices have been down moderately for both grades, and analysts believe pricing could continue to see some weakening going into October.

FLANK STEAK:

Both grades of Flank Steak were down in price last week. This week, after the first three days, Choice grade is seeing a price increase, while Select grade is down. Analysts expect pricing to remain somewhat weak, with more declines going into late fall.

SKIRT STEAK:

Outside Skirts decreased moderately last week, but this week they are showing a moderate price increase after three days. Analysts expect prices to remain somewhat choppy, based on how export activity is trending.

The data contained in the Farmer’s Report is provided for informational purposes only, is not tailored to your specific purchasing needs, and is not intended as a substitute for any other publicly-available market data or information. The Farmer’s Report is compiled from the last-received market data provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and/or other market sources, and is subject to change without notice. Nothing herein is the opinion of US Foods®. US Foods neither assumes any legal liability nor makes any warranty or guaranty, either express or implied, regarding the completeness, accuracy or usefulness of this information.