Beef Trends - January 22, 2021
All current beef pricing trends are based on USDA data as of January 20, 2021. Last week’s trends refer to the USDA market for the full week of January 11, 2021.
The bulk of live cattle traded between $1.08-$1.11/lb. last week. Asking prices for this week have begun at $1.12/lb, but analysts are projecting this week’s live cattle market to be steady to slightly lower.
Last week’s harvest came in at 651,000 head for the second week in a row, which was slightly lower than last year’s same time period. Analysts expect the harvest to be steady this week.
The grade for the week ending January 9, 2021 reported with 83.3% of cattle grading Choice or higher, 14% grading on Select and Ungraded reported at 2.7%.
Ground Chuck dropped slightly last week. However, it is trading slightly up this week and is now trading in line with prices from two weeks ago. Overall, Ground Chuck has been relatively flat in January so far.
GROUND BEEF 81/19:
81/19 Ground Beef traded flat last week. Similar to Ground Chuck, the price of 81/19 Grinds is slightly up this week.
GROUND Beef 73/27:
73/27 Ground Beef traded slightly up last week and is up again through three days of trading this week.
Peeled Knuckles ranged from slightly up to down in last week’s market. Both grades have been trading at higher prices through three days of trading this week, which is a common trend for most beef items this week.
All grades of Inside Rounds took large price increases last week, following what analysts called the market’s bottom from two weeks ago. Three days into this week, both grades have continued to trade at higher prices.
BOTTOM ROUND FLATS:
Outside Rounds were down in price last week. Similar to Peeled Knuckles, Outside Round prices have increased in this week’s market.
EYES OF ROUND:
Eye of Round also lost value last week. Similar to Outside Rounds, Eye of Round have also reversed course from last week, and have been trading at higher prices three days into this week.
Strips went up in price last week and have taken significant price increases three days into this week. Analysts have forecasted Strips to hit seasonal highs in March.
Top Butts took modest price increases last week and have continued that trend on limited trades three days into this week. Analysts expect Top Butts to increase in price over the coming weeks.
Graded Tenderloins increased in price last week as analysts expected, and have continued that trend into this week. Analysts expect Tenderloin prices to increase over the next few weeks heading into Valentine’s Day, as this is historically a popular holiday for the Tenderloin cut.
Similar to other Middle Meat cuts, Ribeyes increased in price last week, and have continued that trend this week after three days of trading.
Chuck Rolls went up in price last week, and are up again this week through three days of trading. Analysts expect Chuck Rolls to begin to decline in price over the next few weeks, although that has not happened yet.
Teres Majors also traded at higher prices last week. On limited trades this week, prices have continued to climb higher. Analysts expect Teres Majors to increase in price over the next few weeks.
Similar to the other Chuck cuts, Briskets were up last week and have continued to trade at higher prices three days into this week. Analysts expect Briskets to take seasonal price increases through St. Patrick’s Day.
Ball Tips took modest gains in price last week. Unlike most other beef items, Choice Ball Tips have actually been slightly down this week, although the day-over-day trading has been slightly increasing all three days of this week, following Monday’s opening.
Flap Meat traded moderately higher last week and has continued the same trend this week.
After losing slight value two weeks ago, Flank Steak was up last week and has continued that trend three days into the current week.
Skirt Steak demand appears to be back, as the cut took another moderate price increase last week. Three days into the current week, prices have continued to increase significantly. However, even at current prices, analysts could still call Outside Skirt a value, due to the price being much lower than historical numbers.
The data contained in the Farmer’s Report is provided for informational purposes only, is not tailored to your specific purchasing needs, and is not intended as a substitute for any other publicly-available market data or information. The Farmer’s Report is compiled from the last-received market data provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and/or other market sources, and is subject to change without notice. Nothing herein is the opinion of US Foods®. US Foods neither assumes any legal liability nor makes any warranty or guaranty, either express or implied, regarding the completeness, accuracy or usefulness of this information.