DRY COMMODITY Trends

Farmer's Report

Dry Commodity Trends - March 1, 2024

Sugar

  • Sugar beet processors remain well sold for the balance of 2024. They state that their current bookings are above 90% of total production. The annual sugar colloquium took place earlier this week, with most participants calling new crop sales “steady,” but slower than last year’s pace
  • A number of processors report that they are closely monitoring beet piles, as some believe that unseasonably warm weather in December, followed by the cold snap in January, might have resulted in reduced overall sucrose content
  • Winter domestic demand numbers continue to come in lighter than last year, according to the USDA
  • The USDA lowered its estimate of 2023/2024 Mexican sugar imports by another 123,000 tons on its February report. Current Mexican production estimates are the lowest in 14 years
  • At the annual Outlook Forum last week, the USDA forecast 2024/2025 U.S. beet sugar production at a record 5.388 million tons; raw value, refined cane at 4.095 million tons; high-tier imports at 400,000 tons; and deliveries at 12.450 million tons  

Dry Beans

  • The majority of domestic dry bean end users remain covered through Q2 of 2024, according to late February updates from cash dealers
  • USDA weekly cash prices are still below last year’s levels for the spot position on several dry bean varieties

Rice

  • On its February supply/demand report, the USDA raised its all-rice import estimate by 1.0 million cwt., to a record 43.0 million cwt.
  • Lower rice production in India, along with the ongoing potential for export bans there, continues to be supportive for the rice market, according to analysts
  • The spot domestic rice futures contract fell from the recent highs over the last two weeks, after rising 28% from the lows posted in July 2023

FLOUR

  • The wheat markets were slightly higher through Wednesday of this week vs. the prior week
  • The spot Kansas City wheat futures made a new contract low on Monday, but then reversed course, as speculative fund traders started to buy back some of their large net short positions ahead of the delivery process against the March contract, according to analysts
  • A short-covering rally in the corn market this week helped to support wheat prices, as both markets compete in domestic feed channels, according to analysts
  • Monthly data released at the state level showed that winter wheat conditions have improved even further in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. The crops have benefitted from consistent moisture in the Southern Plains over the last month, according to analysts
  • Domestic winter wheat basis offers were steady this week, and are currently higher than last year at this time
  • Russian wheat prices have fallen over the last month, providing headwinds for wheat futures markets across the world, according to analysts

The data contained in the Farmer’s Report is provided for informational purposes only, is not tailored to your specific purchasing needs, and is not intended as a substitute for any other publicly-available market data or information. The Farmer’s Report is compiled from the last-received market data provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and/or other market sources, and is subject to change without notice. Nothing herein is the opinion of US Foods®. US Foods neither assumes any legal liability nor makes any warranty or guaranty, either express or implied, regarding the completeness, accuracy or usefulness of this information.