Farmer's Report

Pork TRENDS - October 11, 2019

Pork market information is from the week of Sept. 30, 2019.

Last week the USDA-estimated hog slaughter was 2.669 MM, up almost 1% over the previous week and roughly 6% over the same week last year. This makes last week’s harvest the second largest in U.S. history. 

The USDA released export information for the month of August. Pork exports were up 22% in volume over August of last year, and roughly 19% higher in value. China was the largest destination of U.S. pork.


Prices in the loin complex were mixed. Boneless loin prices moved slightly lower, and the bone-in loins experienced moderate strength. Historically, loins begin to move lower from now through late November.


Pork tenderloin prices moved lower. Historically, pork tenderloin prices trend lower into November.


Pork butt prices were reported slightly higher. Out-front sales were reported higher as well. However, butt prices historically begin to trend lower into November, and this could be amplified by the larger harvest levels.


The rib complex was stronger last week. Historically, rib prices find a floor sometime in the October-November timeframe before they begin to trend higher.


The belly markets continued to surge, as they recover from the significant decline over the past several weeks. According to analysts, forward buying activities for holiday needs are likely driving demand.


Ham prices were steady to lower. Historically the ham market is steady to weaker until late November, when last-minute holiday ham demand comes into play. With hams being a key export and holiday item, volatility is possible for the balance of the year.


Trimming prices were steady to weaker. Historically, trimming prices peak by early October, and trend lower into December.


The picnic complex moved higher. Based on previous years, bone-in picnics historically move higher for the balance of the year, whereas the boneless picnics will trend lower.

The data contained in the Farmer’s Report is provided for informational purposes only, is not tailored to your specific purchasing needs, and is not intended as a substitute for any other publicly-available market data or information. The Farmer’s Report is compiled from the last-received market data provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and/or other market sources, and is subject to change without notice. Nothing herein is the opinion of US Foods®. US Foods neither assumes any legal liability nor makes any warranty or guaranty, either express or implied, regarding the completeness, accuracy or usefulness of this information.