Pork Trends 

Loins 

Boneless loins pivoted back down, while bone-in loins continued to decline. Downward momentum in the bone-in loin market over the past several weeks seems to be slowing, as the market is beginning to stabilize, with analysts expecting the market to eventually pivot higher in line with seasonal trends. Meanwhile, the boneless loin market has slipped lower in recent weeks and remains unsettled. Seasonal demand is fair and relatively steady, and supply is good, according to analysts. Variable promotion is reported for the retail channel. Historically, both loin markets have experienced sharper, seasonal gains in May as grilling season ramps up.

Tenders 

The pork tenderloin market edged slightly higher. Supply is good, while demand has been fair and variable, according to analysts. The USDA continues to report varying levels of promotional frequency in the retail space, with last week seeing a decrease compared to the prior week. Historically, the market begins to show more of a propensity to push higher in May, as seasonal factors come into play.

Butts 

The bone-in butt market surged sharply higher. Supply remains cyclically strong, but is beginning to tighten, as harvest levels decline seasonally, while demand is trending seasonally higher, according to analysts. The USDA continues to report higher trade levels on the futures report, suggesting bullish markets. Historically, the butt markets climb gradually higher in May and sustain that support into June.

Ribs 

The rib markets were mixed. Backribs and light spareribs moved higher, while medium and St. Louis-style spareribs fell lower. Seasonal demand is improving as grilling season heats up, according to analysts. Historically, both the backrib and sparerib markets climb higher into spring and summer, due to increasing seasonal demand.

Bellies/Bacon 

The belly market composite was unchanged from the prior week. The recent correction may be stabilizing, as increased seasonal demand is on the horizon, according to analysts, who note that the current belly market is now 10% below last year at this time, so value-based buying could be picking up. The USDA-reported frequency of bacon features in the retail channel was up considerably from the prior week. Historically, the belly market rises between late May and late June.

Hams 

Declines in the ham markets accelerated, as they’ve fallen below both last year’s levels and the five-year average. Supply remains good on a seasonal basis, and demand remains variable, according to analysts. Historically, the ham markets have tended to ease slightly in early May, but then become steady or move up later in the month and during June.

Trimmings 

42% fat trimmings pivoted higher, while 72% lean trimmings remained unchanged. Supply is good and demand is mostly supportive, according to analysts, who note that since pork trimmings can substitute for beef trimmings, there is a risk of volatility in the pork trimmings markets, as the beef market is currently very strong. Traditionally, the pork trimming markets have remained largely range‑bound heading into May, with no clear signal of a significant move either up or down, but become significantly bullish during the summer months as grilling season demand picks up.

Picnics 

Both the bone-in and boneless picnic markets decreased. The bone-in picnics continue to correct from an uncharacteristically sharp surge in March that elevated the market to a 10-year high, while the boneless picnic market has been declining gradually for the past few weeks, in line with seasonal weakness. Historically, the bone-in picnic market ebbs and flows directionally higher throughout the calendar year, while the boneless picnic market trends higher as the weather warms.