Farmer's Report

Produce Trends - October 19, 2018

VEGETABLES

POTATOES

Russet  

The market on russets is mixed this week. Norkotahs and Burbanks out of Idaho are up. Norkotahs out of Washington/Oregon are down, while product out of Colorado is steady. 6 oz. minimum size out of Idaho is steady on Norkotahs and up on Burbanks. There are moderate supplies and demand.

Reds  

The red potato market is mixed this week. Product out of Minnesota is down, while product out of Wisconsin is steady.

Yellows  

The markets out of both Florida and California are steady. Quality is good, with moderate supply and demand.

CABBAGE

Round Green  

The cabbage market is flat, with supplies continuing to be below normal this week. Demand is steady, and quality is good.

LEAF LETTUCE

Green Leaf  

The green leaf market is down this week, with supplies lighter than normal. Demand is good, and quality has been good also, with some lighter weights.

Romaine  

The romaine lettuce market is down this week, with supplies returning to normal. Demand is good, and quality is clean, with some minimal fringe burn.

ICEBERG LETTUCE  

The iceberg lettuce market is down. Supplies are expected to be good this week. Prices are trending lower, as demand has decreased.

GARLIC  

No changes in the California garlic market. There are good supplies. Vendors can fill all orders and beyond. Chinese peeled garlic pricing continues to hold. The tariff on Chinese garlic has started. The initial tariff is set at 10%, and could increase to 25% by January 1.

ONIONS  

The jumbo yellow onion market is mixed this week. Product out of Washington/Oregon is steady, while product out of Idaho is down. Moderate supplies and good demand are being reported out of both growing regions.

CILANTRO  

The cilantro market is mixed this week. Product out of Oxnard is up on 30’s and down on 60’s. Product out of Central Coast California is down on 30’s and on 60’s. Supply and demand are moderate. Quality varies by growing region.

CUCUMBERS  

Supply is limited in both the East and West. Quality is good right now, but will decline in upcoming weeks.

SQUASH AND Zucchini

Yellow Squash 

Supply is tight in the East, with poor quality. Western supply is tight as well, but quality is good out of Nogales.

GREEN BEANS  

The green bean market is mixed this week, depending on the growing region. Imported haricot verts are down, with moderate supplies and demand. Machine-picked product out of south Georgia is up, with lighter supplies and good demand. Product out of Eastern Shore Virginia is up, with moderate supplies and demand. Quality varies by growing region.

BELL PEPPERS

Green  

Supply is light but still available. Quality is good for now, but will deteriorate as rain-soaked fields are harvested.

Red  

Supply is getting a little tight. Quality is excellent.

TOMATOES

Rounds  

Eastern supply is almost non-existent. Demand is moving to the Western crop, which is light but available. Quality is fair to good if you can get the product.

Cherry  

Eastern supply is almost non-existent. Demand is moving to the Western crop, which is light but available. Quality is fair to good if you can get the product.

Grape  

Supply is OK in the East, but Western supply is very low and not enough to meet demand. Quality is poor in the West and fair in the East.

Romas  

Eastern supply is almost non-existent. Demand is moving to the Western crop, which is light but available. Quality is fair to good if you can get the product.

CARROTS  

The jumbo carrot market is mixed this week. Product out of California is up, while product out of Mexico is down. There are moderate supplies and demand out of both growing regions. Quality continues to vary out of Mexico.

CELERY  

The celery market is flat. Supplies are steady and normal this week. Markets are still depressed with lack of demand.

GREEN ONIONS  

The green onion market is slightly down this week, but still high. Product out of Mexico is down on medium size. The industry-wide shortage continues as demand exceeds supply, which is expected to continue for another 1-2 weeks. First-tier triggers are still in place. All suppliers are holding to averages or shorting product.

CAULIFLOWER  

The cauliflower market is up, with supplies expected to be around normal this week. Supplies vary by vendor. Prices are increasing.

ASPARAGUS  

The asparagus market is mixed this week. Product out of Mexico is down, while product out of Peru is up. Peru is seeing moderate supplies, while supplies are still lighter out of Mexico. Quality varies out of both growing regions.

BROCCOLI  

The broccoli market is down, with supplies expected to be around normal this week. Quality is improving, and volume is increasing. The market is trending slightly lower.

MUSHROOMS  

Mushrooms are showing good supplies and quality coming off the East Coast. The West Coast continues to struggle with disease, which is directly correlated to the lack of labor and pickers to harvest the farms.

TROPICAL

PINEAPPLES  

Supply is good and quality is great. Good volumes are expected for the remainder of the year.

BANANA  

Banana markets are good, with high-quality fruit coming into the market. Conditions should continue to be great, and no real issues with production are expected for the remainder of the year.

AVOCADOS  

The avocado market is steady to down this week. Production is steady out of Mexico, with abundant supply.

CITRUS

LEMONS  

Mexican pricing continues to drop, due to more supply crossing. California supply is also down this week, as two areas are harvesting.

ORANGES  

Demand exceeds supplies on 138’s. This will continue through the end of the Valencia season. 113’s will get tighter as the season progresses. Best availability is on 88’s and larger.

LIMES  

Limes are steady to down, depending on the size. Supply has improved from last week.

HANGING FRUIT

Apples  

Gala and Golden Delicious markets are steady to slightly down this week, depending on the growing region. All other varieties are stable. Demand is moderate and quality is good.

Pears  

The pear market remains stable. Green and red D’Anjou and Bosc are available. The small end of pears remains tight, while 90 ct. and larger remain constant.

MELONS

CANTALOUPE  

The cantaloupe market is down this week. Recent weather has affected the Arizona melon crop–mostly, the the availability to harvest. Expect to see larger fruit available in the coming days, as the delay in harvest has added extra days on the vine. Markets at destination will increase as the crop slowly makes its way out East.

HONEYDEW  

The honeydew market is flat this week. As with cantaloupes, recent weather has affected the Arizona melon crop–mostly, the availability to harvest. Expect to see larger fruit available in the coming days, as the delay in harvest has added extra days on the vine. Markets at destination will increase as the crop slowly makes its way out East.

BERRIES

RASPBERRIES  

Raspberries look great – quality, size, color and taste are on track.

STRAWBERRIES  

The strawberry market is up this week. The Salinas-Watsonville berry quality is looking better than in the past few weeks. Florida strawberries will be ready for harvest come November.

GRAPES  

The grape market is steady this week. Autumn King. Autumn Royal, Red Globe, Red Seedless, Scarlett Royal and White Seedless out of Kern District and San Joaquin Valley California are all steady. There is moderate supply and demand for Red Globe, and light demand on the other varieties. There are reports of quality and pack date issues.

BLUEBERRIES  

Blueberries are looking good, with minimal defects.

BLACKBERRIES  

Blackberries are still holding up nicely, with size slightly smaller, and expected to remain small.

Beef Trends - October 19, 2018

104K head of cash cattle traded last week at $111/cwt. Cash cattle prices are expected to seasonally increase into the fourth quarter, ranging from $119 to $124/cwt. by the end of the year. This forecast for Q4 is 5% higher than the Q3 level.

Federally inspected slaughter for last week was recorded at 639K head, of which 500K head were made up of fed steers/heifers. Forecasts are for slaughter rates to decline to the 630’s by mid-November, and fully 3% lower by the end of the year relative to Q3.

Carcass weights as of the week ending September 29 were recorded at 827 lbs. dressed, which is unchanged from the previous week. Fed steers are currently at the heaviest weight since the beginning of the year, ringing in at 900 lbs. dressed. Carcass weights will continue their seasonal climb, but are anticipated to cap off in late October rather than mid-November, slightly over last year’s peak, by less than 1%.

With carcass weights modestly heavier than last year, combined with a 2.5% increase in harvest levels, total beef production is expected to be 2.9% larger than a year ago. Stellar performance in export trade, along with good domestic demand, has kept both cattle and beef prices elevated, given the current level of production.

We continue to see excellent grading. For the week ending October 5, the Prime/Choice grade reported at 78.54%. One state, Nebraska, has been exceeding 9% Prime for the last three reporting sessions.

GRINDS

GROUND BEEF 81/19:

Grinds reported a slight rebound from the previous week, but the market is still viewed as soft. Modest, seasonal increases are expected moving into late October/early November.

GROUND CHUCK:

Ground chuck ended the week basically flat. The market is viewed as soft, with modest seasonal increases expected into late October/early November.

ROUNDS

PEELED KNUCKLES:

Choice knuckles were slightly discounted to move supplies; however, Select was higher, due to limited availability from superb cattle grading. The market is expected to trade in more of a sideways manner the next couple of weeks.

INSIDE ROUNDS:

Choice insides were discounted to move inventories. Select and Ungraded were higher, on light supplies. Downside risk remains for the next couple of weeks.

BOTTOM ROUND FLATS:

Choice bottom round flats ended the week mostly steady, with downside risk noted.

EYES OF ROUND:

Eyes were slightly higher, led by Select. The market remains soft.

LOINS

STRIPS:

Choice strips declined heavily last week, with discounting needed to move problematic inventory. Select was down only slightly on lesser supplies. Choice is rebounding slightly this week, but strips are still considered soft. Select remains soft to weak. Modest declines are anticipated through November.

TOP BUTTS:

Top butts declined modestly, with Select the exception, due to tighter supply. The market remains flat, with slight weakness noted and expected the next couple of weeks.

TENDERLOINS:

Tenders continue to perform seasonally, with the market firm on Choice and soft on Select. Choice is expected to continue the upward trajectory, with downside risk associated in the Select market.

RIBS

RIBEYES:

Slight discounting for light ribs occurred last week on spotty volume. Select light ribeyes were higher on limited supplies. Ungraded light ribs are becoming more available, as buyers enter and exit the Choice market. The market remains soft this week. More seasonal advances will come into play as we enter November. Choice and Select heavy ribs continue to advance, and the market remains firm. There is little downside risk associated with the market, as advances are expected to continue until early/mid-December.

CHUCKS

CHUCK ROLLS:

Chuck rolls declined slightly on fully adequate supplies. The market is still on the defensive, with slight to modest declines anticipated into mid/late November.

TERES MAJOR MUSCLE:

Choice Teres Majors ended the week moderately higher with Select gaining slightly. The market is mixed this week. Pricing oscillates weekly, as buyers enter and exit the market. Seasonal increases are expected into mid/late November.

BRISKETS:

Briskets reported increases last week on decent volume. Supplies are expected to tighten the next couple of weeks, supporting pricing before possible retracement. Seasonal advances are expected starting in late November/early December.

THIN MEATS

BALL TIPS:

Ball tips declined once again, but firming action is noted in the market this week. There is still downside risk associated with the market.

FLAP MEAT:

Significant declines occurred again in the flap market. This week the decline continues, but not to the extent we saw last week so far. Further downside risk remains.

FLANK:

Flank steak declined once again last week on all grades. The market remains soft.

SKIRT STEAK:

Outside skirts were able to take a modest gain last week, and are up significantly so far this week, but this is not expected to hold.

Pork Trends - October 19, 2018

The USDA reported an estimated slaughter last week of 2.49 MM head, slightly below one year ago, and about 1% lower than the week prior. This week’s harvest numbers are expected to come in about even with a year ago. Looking ahead, harvest numbers are expected to gradually increase to record levels over the next 45 days, as packers begin to slowly work in Saturday kills.

On the demand side, the outlook is mixed, with domestic commodity pork demand expected to taper off during the month of November, and export demand, which was up 5% over one year ago based on the latest USDA Report, it's expected to remain strong–supported by recent trade agreements with Canada, Mexico, and South Korea. Also worth noting: there are additional confirmed cases of African Swine Fever in China, including an outbreak on a large hog farm in Liaoning province. At present, the number of confirmed cases has risen to 37. Economists monitoring the situation estimate that the impact of this virus could result in higher-than-expected commodity pork prices for Q1 of 2019.

Loins

The loin complex traded lower last week, with bone-in loin prices posting their third straight week of significant declines, and boneless loins turning lower. The outlook for bone-in loins is for steady to slightly lower prices during October, with further declines expected during November. Despite heavy retail featuring, boneless loin prices are slightly lower in early-week trade, and expected to continue on their downward trend through November.

TENDERS

Pork tenderloin prices traded lower last week, as overall demand continues to weaken. Prices remain on their downward trajectory in early-week trade, but tenderloins remain a great value relative to years past, so an occasional retail ad may create some short-term bumps along the way. Expect this trend of sawtooth price movement to continue through year’s end.

BUTTS

Pork butt prices took significant declines last week, as packers unexpectedly found themselves with extra product on hand. Prices are lower in early-week trade, and it appears that, for the time being, pork butt demand has peaked–and prices are being discounted to keep the various demand channels interested. Seasonal slowdowns on retail and export demand are forecasted to drive lower prices into November.

RIBS

Pricing on the rib complex traded slightly higher last week, with back ribs and spareribs showing slight gains. Prices are mixed early-week, with back ribs in decline, due to excess inventories and a lack of processor and retail demand. Meanwhile, spareribs have found support at the current price levels, as processors put up rib packages for the 2019 season. The rib complex is close to or at their seasonal lows.

BELLIES/BACON

Belly prices continue to move higher, as demand is steady across multiple channels. Retail features for bacon are being reported as frequent for the months of October and November, but ad prices are not necessarily deemed aggressive. In addition, export and freezer buyers have been active, but slowing. Prices are higher in early-week trade, but the rate of gain has started to slow. The belly market remains volatile and may correct lower, given the unseasonably strong increase over the past five weeks.

HAMS

Ham prices posted significant declines last week, as ample supplies outpaced current demand needs. Prices for both small and heavy hams are lower in early-week trade, but the market is expected to firm and hold steady, as retailers and foodservice customers do a final review of their holiday ham needs. Additionally, improved export demand is expected to support heavy ham prices late this year/early next year.

TRIMMINGS

Trimming prices continued to correct lower for the third week in a row. Prices are still inflated from the supply disruptions experienced during Hurricane Florence three weeks ago. The forecast is for pricing to continue trending lower through year’s end.

PICNICS

The picnic complex remains mixed, as strong demand for boneless picnics and cushion meat support the overall primal. Bone-in product is starting to find support at current price levels, with retailers featuring product for the roast season. The long-term forecast calls for declining boneless picnic prices and increasing bone-in prices.

Turkey Trends - October 19, 2018

BONELESS, SKINLESS TURKEY BREASTS

Boneless, skinless turkey breasts were flat this week. In the near term, we should expect this market to trend flat to upward as seasonal demand increases.

WHOLE FROZEN TURKEYS

Whole turkeys were flat this week as we move closer to the holiday season. We expect this market to trend flat to upward in the near term.

Chicken Trends - October 19, 2018

Jumbo wing markets took an ever-so-slight decline, with an increase in spot loads being offered. The jumbo tender supply has tightened, with very little extra product being shown. The select/small boneless breast market and small tender markets remain short of supply, with very little extra product available.

Small wings had appeared settled, but with the beginning of this week they are showing signs of softening. Jumbo wings and medium wings are well-supported, with expectations that this will continue through football season. Export demand on items such as boneless breast and leg quarters are at normal seasonal levels. Thigh meat is balanced, but demand is showing a slight increase, which could move the market slightly upward. Leg meat is in a balanced position. Domestic sales of leg quarters are unchanged. Whole birds/WOG are balanced; however, with a decline in demand patterns, we should expect a flat-to-downward trend for the near term.

BROILER-TYPE EGGS SET IN THE UNITED STATES UP SLIGHTLY

Hatcheries in the United States weekly program set 216 million eggs in incubators during the week ending October 13, 2018, up slightly from a year ago. Average hatchability for chicks hatched during the week in the United States was 82.5%. Average hatchability is calculated by dividing chicks hatched during the week by eggs set three weeks earlier.

Note: Starting in 2018, the 19-State totals have been discontinued.

BROILER-TYPE CHICKS PLACED IN THE UNITED STATES DOWN 1%

Broiler growers in the United States weekly program placed 177 million chicks for meat production during the week ending October 13, 2018, down 1% from a year ago. Cumulative placements from the weeks ending January 6, 2018 through October 13, 2018 for the United States were 7.51 billion, up 1 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Note: Starting in 2018, the 19-State totals have been discontinued.

WHOLE CHICKEN & CUT-UP PARTS

Small bird demand continues to be strong and supply is still tight. We can expect this trend to continue through 2018 and into 2019.

BONELESS, SKINLESS BREASTS & CHICKEN TENDERLOINS

The select/small boneless breast market was flat this week. This market continues to be supported by the YTD headcount deficit in the small bird category. We can expect the select/small market to trend flat to upward in the near term. The jumbo boneless breast market was down this week. We can expect this market to trend flat to downward in the near term. The medium boneless breast market was down this week, and we can expect this market to trend flat to downward in the near term also, following the same direction as the jumbo product. Long-term expectations are still calling for an oversupply situation in the jumbo and medium boneless breast category through the end of 2018.

The select/small tenderloin market was flat this week. However, with renewed interest from further processors in the small poultry category, we expect this market may trend flat to upward in the near term. The jumbo tenderloin market was also flat this week. As with select and small tenders, this is the result of further processors stepping back into the market. In the short term, this should help balance this market. We can expect this market to trend flat to upward in the near term, too.

WINGS

The small wing market was flat this week. Product is being placed at normal trading levels. We should expect this market to trend flat to upward in the near term. The jumbo wing market was down this week. Jumbo wing availability is limited, with processors asking for higher prices. As football season is underway, we are seeing regional demand start to spike. We can expect this market to trend flat to upward in the near term also.

BONELESS, SKINLESS THIGHS

The boneless, skinless thigh market was flat this week, and we can expect this market to trend flat to upward in the near term. As seasonal and export demand ramp up, labor shortages will heavily come into play.

SOY, CANOLA & PALM OIL Trends - October 19, 2018

The soybean harvest is reported at 32% complete, below the five-year average of 36%.

The Brazilian soybean planting progress was reported at 10% complete, up from 5% last week and ahead of the five-year average of 5%.

The soybean complex closed mixed to slightly lower last week, as the recent trading ranges remained intact for all three legs: beans, crush and oil. The heavy rains kept farmers out of the fields for the most part last week, but harvest picked up again as the Midwest dried out.

Thursday’s USDA reports had minimal price impact on the markets, and overall were not as bearish as many had feared. It raised the national average soybean yield estimate for the third month in a row to 53.1 bushels per acre, but total acreage was lowered by 600,000. Ending stocks projections for 2018/2019 were raised another 40 million, to a record 885 million bushels.

SOY

• The December soybean oil futures gave up a little ground, but remained confined to the recent trading range between $.2850 and $.3000. Soybean oil demand continues to outpace expectations, keeping domestic stocks from building and helping to support both futures and basis.
• The USDA report had ending stocks of soybean oil for the 2018/2019 crop year at 2.116 billion pounds, down 50 million from September, as strong domestic demand continues to offset the higher production coming from record soybean crush levels. The comment most used to describe this week’s USDA report for the soybean complex was “not as bearish as it could have been.”
• Rumors were circulating that the U.S. may be exporting soybean oil to Brazil soon, as they are starting to run low on soybean supplies for crush, and may not be able to meet their current B-10 (biodiesel) mandate.

CANOLA

Canola seed prices were firm as the Canadian harvest has started to fall behind, due to heavy snowfall in some regions. This helped to support canola basis levels.

PALM OIL

Malaysian palm oil stocks rose to an eight-month high at the end of September, to 2.54 million metric tons. That number compares to 2.016 MMT at the end of September last year. In addition, their Oct. 1 through Oct. 10 palm oil exports fell over 15%.

US EXPORTS

Weekly soybean oil export sales for 2018/2019 were reported at 11,400 tons. The number was near the lower end of the range of trade expectations between 10,000 and 20,000 tons.

Dairy Trends - October 19, 2018

MILK & CREAM

Milk output has been mixed. The West and Midwest have been steady and are meeting demand, while weather impacts in the East have led to declines. Supplies are plentiful, even with back-to-school seasonal demand. Pricing increased slightly for October.

CHEESE

Demand across the country has been supportive, but end users appear to be increasingly reluctant to add coverage, given expected seasonal setbacks as we close out the year. Strong production is keeping inventories at comfortable levels, and milk loads are still flowing freely. It doesn’t look like the cheap prices being offered for barrel cheese have cleared up the large inventories yet, but prices do seem to have stabilized.

BUTTER

Cream availability is mixed, with some regions having limited supplies for butter production. Demand rates across the U.S. remain steady, and increasing heading into baking season.

SHELL EGGS

Movement in retail is still seasonally strong, but has not been exceeding expectations. Shell egg production is still going strong and keeping plenty of supply on the market. This has kept the market in a well-balanced position, as end users are more than able to find product to satisfy needs. The increased demand potential over the next few months will be crucial to price direction, but the large flock sizes should help insulate price rallies like we saw last year.

Seafood Trends - October 19, 2018

SHRIMP, DOMESTIC

(WHITES AND BROWNS):

******The Gulf State boats have re-fitted for the Fall White Shrimp season, and most boats moved west, closer to Texas. Larger whites U/15 and larger could be limited for the short term until boats come back to dock. We are seeing prices increase on Large White shrimp.

DOMESTIC PUDS:

With the weather change, we are seeing a lot of action in the in-shore fishery. This should provide a good amount of smaller shrimp.

SHRIMP, IMPORTED

(BLACK TIGER AND WHITES):

Production on tigers continues to be very low. Larger sizes are extremely tight.

Farmed Asian White shrimp are showing some signs of getting stronger in pricing.

(MEXICAN BROWNS AND WHITES):

Production is getting underway. Once the season gets started, we will be able to report on the catch.

CATFISH

DOMESTIC:

Inventory of frozen fillets is in very good shape, as well as fish in the ponds. Supply is good going into the fall season.

IMPORTED:

We are seeing stable pricing on imported catfish. 3-5 oz. fillets are tight, but there is plenty of supply of larger fillets.

SALMON

ATLANTIC FARMED SALMON:

We are now seeing the growth of fish in Chile becoming too large for small-size portions. This could have a direct impact on 4 oz. portions through the end of the year. Reports are now starting to come out that we could see record high prices in 2019. In the short term, fresh sides out of Chile are flat to slightly down. Fresh whole fish have really firmed, behind strong demand coming out of China.

MAHI-MAHI

Pricing continues to trend lower, as inventory levels are in very good shape.

SCALLOPS

SEA:

Pricing has turned upward, as is the norm for this time of the year. They have caught about 75% of the quota for the year. We continue to see higher pricing on all natural non-processed product.

BAY:

Pricing is on the rise due to tariffs. Overall demand is steady.

TILAPIA

Inventory in the US seems to be good. We did see a small price increase for Q4. We expect pricing to remain at these levels until the first of the year.

PANGASIUS

Pricing remains firm. Inventory is starting to shift to where 3-5’s have dried up with inventory, and the shift to more inventory on 5-7’s and 7-9’s has happened.

WHITEFISH COMPLEX

COD:

We expect the overall market to remain very firm, with short inventory and high prices. Q4 will bring much higher prices, due to low supply on raw material, in addition to the potential tariffs.

POLLOCK:

The fishery for Pacific pollock has produced only smaller fish, just 2-4 oz. fillets. This could cause an inventory issue for frozen loins if they don’t start catching larger fish. Larger fillets of 4-6 and 6-8 oz. are very tight.

HADDOCK:

Pricing on skin-on fillets and skinless loins is starting to see increases. Q4 will bring much higher prices, due to low supply on raw material, in addition to the potential tariffs.

FLOUNDER:

Small-size inventory has gotten a lot better. We are now seeing larger fillets in the 8-10 oz. size. Argentine flounder is now in season, and we are just waiting for new production. Currently we have good levels of inventory, and price is steady.

TUNA, YELLOWFIN

(FROZEN STEAKS & LOINS):

Tuna pricing is starting to firm up, and we anticipate increases in the near future.

SWORDFISH

Swordfish pricing is very stable. Inventory levels are in very good shape.

KING CRAB

(RED & GOLDEN):

Product is very short in the marketplace across all sizes, as the quota was cut again.

CRABMEAT

(BLUE & RED, PASTEURIZED):

Demand is slowing on the larger sizes, and as a result we are seeing a slight decrease in price. We are now hearing the catch has been so poor in the Philippines that they could suspend fishing as a whole through February, which would have a huge impact on global supply.

Red swimming crab pricing will be moving up for next week. Inventory is becoming nonexistent, and we expect to see this continue through October. Tariffs will cause higher pricing.

Mexico blue crab season is in full production, and pricing is starting to weaken, as production is very good.

SNOW CRAB

ALASKAN:

All vendors are currently off the market. The 2018/2019 quota was announced last week. There will be a 50% increase in the quota. The outlook for the future also looks good, as the biomass for younger crab looks very positive.

CANADIAN:

Inventory on 5-8 clusters seems to be plentiful. Pricing is very unstable. However, larger-sized 10-up and 12-up clusters are tight in supply.

LOBSTER TAILS

NORTH AMERICAN LOBSTER:

Overall, the catch in the North Atlantic is a bust. We are seeing very little production, and we expect to see shortages during the holiday season.

LOBSTER TAILS WARM WATER:

Supply on warm water tails is in a decent place. The new fishing season is underway, and there is a solid expectation for the fishery to produce this year. Due to high demand, pricing is firming. We now have MSC product in our Harbor Banks brand.

LOBSTER MEAT:

We are seeing some poor quality meat on the market. Markets are still uncertain. Buyer beware on something that seems “too good to be true.”

Import & product price trends - October 19, 2018

• President Donald Trump announced early this year he would impose tariffs on imports to shrink the trade deficit.
• Three rounds of tariffs on Chinese products have been implemented so far:
  • 1. March 23, ~$3 billion of products: imported steel (25%) and aluminum (10%).
  • 2. The next round of ~$50 billion in products from China – mostly machinery and parts – was put on in two stages:
    • July 6, ~$34 billion of imported products (25%).
    • August 23, ~$16 billion (also 25%).
  • 3. September 24, an additional ~$200 billion in products from China (10%).
• The administration plans to increase the tariffs to 25% on January 1, 2019 if no agreement is met.
• China has retaliated against the US tariffs, initially matching the first $50 billion, and now an additional $60 billion against the latest round ($200 billion).
• With China’s retaliation, President Trump announced the possibility of tariffs on an additional $267 billion of imported products from China.
• Price increases on affected products are industry-wide, and vendors will see the impacts of these tariffs on raw materials at different stages, depending on multiple factors.
• As vendors increase their prices due to tariffs, we pass them on to customers. Below is the up-to-date list of products experiencing price increases by category.

Products with Price Increases Through 11/15/18