- COMMODITY OIL
- TRADE & TARIFFS
Produce Trends - February 15, 2019
The market on russets is mixed this week. Norkotahs out of Washington/Oregon are steady, while product out of Colorado is up. Burbanks out of Idaho are down, while Norkotahs are steady. 6 oz. minimum size out of Idaho are also steady on Norkotahs and Burbanks. Lighter supplies are being reported on 50-80 cts. out of Washington/Oregon. Moderate supply and good demand are being reported out of Idaho.
The red potato market is mixed this week. Product out of Minnesota is down, while product of Wisconsin is steady. Guidance reflects product out of Minnesota.
The markets out of both Florida and California are steady. Quality is good, with moderate supply and demand.
The cabbage market is up this week. Due to the cold weather, there will be lighter supplies for the next two weeks.
The green leaf market is down this week. The rain this weekend will continue to take a toll on the crop. There are issues with slight yellowing and lighter weights. Yields continue to take a hit, which will create lighter supplies this week.
The romaine market is up this week. Supplies are expected to be good this week. Prices have become steady. Demand is lower. We will continue to see a decrease in epidermal peel and all other cosmetic defects in current crops. However, we expect to witness a spike in frost damage, as the desert growing region just went through a few days of cold temperatures.
The iceberg market is down this week. Supplies are expected to be good this week, with no significant changes in volume. Both demand and prices are steadily lower. Frost damage and mildew continue to be the norm. As previously reported, additional cleaning and more peeling of the outer leaves at the field level will be the top priority to mitigate defect percentages. There were freezing temps three times last week. There will be small signs of mildew stain, and some weak-tip damage due to the freezing temps
Product out of California is steady, but supplies have tightened, and quality issues are being reported as we near the end of the 2018 crop season. This is expected to continue for another 1-2 weeks.
The jumbo yellow onion market is mixed this week. Product out of Washington/Oregon is down, while product out of Idaho is steady. There is moderate supply and demand out of both regions. Good quality is being reported.
Mushroom supply and quality continue to be an issue on the West Coast. No issues to report on the East Coast.
The cilantro market is mixed this week. Product out of Oxnard is down on 30’s. Product out of Imperial/Coachella Valley California and Arizona is down on 30’s and 60’s. Product out of Texas is steady on 60’s. There is moderate supply and good demand out of all growing regions. Quality is fair out of all regions.
Cucumber prices are up this week, due to tighter supplies than expected. Honduras has cut back on imports, putting extra pressure on Mexico. Quality is fair for the time being, with skin damage being the most prevalent problem.
Celery is up significantly again this week. Celery supplies are expected to be light again this week. The market is trending much higher. Demand is strong, as availability of supplies with good quality is limited out of both California and Mexico. The weather has been cold, so sizing is a little smaller. We are expecting colder weather this week, which won’t help. Volumes are still below average.
SQUASH AND Zucchini
Squash prices are flat to down this week. Florida saw a large price drop, as supplies improve and new blocks start to harvest. Mexico remains flat, as prices are already low. Quality still remains a struggle for yellow squash, with heavy wind scarring being reported in both regions.
Zucchini prices continue to drop this week. Both Mexico and Florida are reporting improved supplies and lower prices. Quality remains mixed, with wind scarring and bruising still seen in the field.
The green bean market is down this week. Imported haricot verts are down with moderate supplies and demand. Machine-picked product and handpicked product out of Florida is down. Domestic supply is moderate, with lighter demand this week. Handpicked product out of Mexico is down with moderate supply, lighter demand, and a wide range in quality.
Green bell peppers have started to drop fast now. Increased supply out of Mexico and farmers picking their red bells early to capture the high dollar green bell market led to the drop. Florida has seen a larger price drop than Mexico. Prices have started to balance out between the regions. Quality remains fair to good for now, with some decay being reported.
Red bell peppers are up this week. Due to field farmers picking red bells early to capture the green bell price, supplies have tightened. Red bell quality looks to be good, especially out of the hothouses.
Round tomatoes are steady to down this week. Florida is seeing a drop this week, due to increased supply and pressure from Mexico. Mexico production is in full swing, and prices are near the basement. Quality, however, is mixed, with reports of stem decay and yellow coloring.
Roma prices are steady to down this week. Florida is reporting a slight price drop, while Mexico is flat. Supplies continue to be good and quality is trending up.
Cherry tomatoes continue to be flat this week. Supply and quality are beginning to improve.
Grape tomato prices are mixed this week. Florida is posting a price decrease this week as supplies improve. Mexico prices are steady for the week. Quality is good in both regions.
The jumbo carrot market is down this week. Product out of California is down, with moderate supply and demand. Product out of Mexico is also down, with lighter supply, moderate demand, and a wide range in quality. Product out of south Georgia is also down.
The green onion market is down this week, but overall it remains strong. Product out of Mexico is down on medium size. There are lighter supplies, good demand, and a wide range in quality out of Mexico.
The cauliflower market is up significantly. Cauliflower supplies are expected to be light this week. The market is higher, as volume is low and demand is increasing. The recent rainfall has affected the quality of the product.
The asparagus market is down this week. Product out of Peru is down, with moderate supply and demand. Product out of Mexico is down with lighter supplies and demand. Quality will vary out of both countries.
The broccoli market is up, with supplies expected to be around normal this week. Prices are steadily strong out of both California and Mexico. There will be an increase in supplies, with good quality this week out of Mexico. Quality out of California has been affected by the cold temperatures and wet conditions.
Eggplant supplies have improved in both the East and the West growing regions. This has allowed the price to drop slightly for the week. Quality is a mix of fair and good for the time being.
All varieties are steady this week with moderate supply, good demand and quality, except for Granny Smith variety, where supplies continue to be light.
The pear market remains stable. Green and red D’Anjou and Bosc are available. The small end of pears remains tight while 90 ct. and larger remain constant.
Lemon prices continue to be stable, and supply remains good. Lemons are coming from several areas in California and from Yuma, Arizona. Quality remains fair to good, but there is rain in the forecast, which could cause quality issues along with harvest and shipping delays.
Orange prices are flat for the week. Navels continue to come from Central California and Riverside, and are trending toward 88//113/72 counts. Cara Caras are still in good supply and trending toward the 88/113/72 sizes. Blood orange supply is good and trending toward 138/163/113 counts. There is more rain in the forecast for this week and next week, which could lead to harvest and shipping delays.
Lime prices continue to jump up. Supplies have tightened, which is driving the price up. Quality remains between poor and fair, with discoloration being the main issue.
The strawberry market is down this week; however, rain is in the forecast for California. It will be at least a week to 10 days before they rebound. Florida is still in short supply. Mexico is trying to make up for both California and Florida. Expect prorates for the balance of the week.
Blackberries are slightly soft in the afternoons, but overall quality is good at the cooler, with very few rejections.
Raspberries are looking good overall, with the main defects being overripe fruit due to heat. Volume is expected to increase week-by-week.
Blueberries are looking very good. Size may decrease slightly with warm weather ahead, but overall, quality is nice, and volume is expected to increase.
The grape market is mixed this week. Crimson seedless out of Peru are steady on XL and Medium/Large. Red Globes out of Peru are down on XL/Jumbo and Large. Red seedless out of Peru/Chile are steady on XL/Medium while up on Large. Sugarones are steady on XL/Large and Jumbo. White seedless out of Chile and Peru are up on XL, Jumbo and Large. Supply and quality are expected to get much better in March as the industry gets into the import season.
Pineapple supplies remain good and are expected to be healthy throughout February. The size is trending toward a smaller size, but there is still good availability on larger fruit. Quality remains good for now.
Banana supplies continue to be tight. The main issue is the difficult growing concerns, and the fruit is taking longer to ripen. Vendors continue to open ports on Sundays to help battle the volume issue.
Avocado prices are up this week. Harvests have improved, but crossing the border has been limited, causing a strain on supplies. Most sizes and grades are getting pushed up. #2 fruit remains tight for the time being.
The cantaloupe market is down this week. Productivity at the farms is up. The weather is ideal for melons at this time, and incidence of white fly pressure is stated to be minimal.
The honeydew market is down this week. Productivity at the farms is up. The volumes on all items are set to go up, especially the honeydews. The weather is ideal for melons at this time, and incidence of white fly pressure is stated to be minimal.
Beef Trends - February 15, 2019
Cash cattle traded at $125/cwt. in the South, $1 higher than last week, and $200 dressed in the North, $1 higher as well. No cattle traded at auction on Wednesday. Cattle are expected to trade steady to $1 lower this week, and most likely will follow suit with trade commencing late week. Packers are doing a great job extending the week out as far as possible before procuring cattle. Feeders are caving in at the last minute to clear the pens; therefore, cash cattle are expected to continue the course of mid-to-lower $120’s the next several weeks. This week last year, cash cattle made the spot high for 2018 at $130.52, showing that feeders continue to lose leverage with the packers. On Monday, April live cattle posted their highest value since being listed on the CME at $128.30.
Federally inspected slaughter was reported at 614K head the week before, of which fed steers and heifers made up 479K head. This was down 1K head PW, but 3K head higher PY. This was the largest slaughter for that week since 2011.
As for the week before, cutout values were stronger through mid-week before dropping back in late-week trade, with the weekly averages similar to the previous week. Firmness in the ribs was offset by modest weakening in the chuck, some rib portions and brisket primals. The spot market load count on Choice and Select boxed beef cuts was the smallest since the holidays. The biggest declines in volumes were seen across the chuck rolls, briskets, 109E bone-in rib eyes, inside rounds, outside flats and flap meat, while there were gains on tenderloins, light boneless ribeyes and short loins. Sales this week started off even slower than the previous week, as we enter the February doldrums, and there was a sharp drop-off in forward and export sales, lending concern that packers will be out of alignment to demand on several items, and discounting may be needed to clear supplies.
GROUND BEEF 81/19:
Blended grinds fell on more-than-adequate supplies, and continue to be weak. Downside risk remains into late February before seasonally rebounding in March on the shirt tails of retail featuring.
Ground chuck fell on the same principles as the blends, in addition to the lack of support by the chuck rolls whose values are weak. They will follow much the same path as blended grinds.
Peeled knuckles managed to move slightly higher and are holding their value, but they’re expected to retrace from current levels into March.
Inside rounds ended the week either side of steady, and are expected to trade in a sideways fashion before declining into March.
BOTTOM ROUND FLATS:
Bottom round flats ended last week slightly higher and are maintaining their value. However, they are expected to trend lower into March.
EYES OF ROUND:
Eyes were firm last week, but are starting to show signs of softening. They are expected to retrace from current levels into March. They contain most of the downside risk in the round complex, followed by the flats.
Striploins reported either side of steady the week before, and exhibit weak undertones. Strips and shortloins are expected to trade in a more sideways fashion the next couple of weeks before seasonal strength in March through May.
Top butts moved higher once again, but the volume does not lend support. Packers are moving to more XT scheduling, leaving the availability on the commodity trim product limited. More sideways to slightly weaker action is expected the next couple of weeks before seasonally increasing in March.
Substantial discounting was needed on graded tenders in the effort to right inventories at the packer level. Ungraded moved higher on limited supplies due to good cattle grading. Tenders continue to exhibit downside risk, but the seasonal winter low is upon us. Tenders typically rebound late February into the spring.
Light ribs ended the week mostly lower; the exception was Select, with limited supplies available due to cattle grading well. Light ribeyes could take on more of a sideways-to-lower trend before strengthening into March. Heavy ribs ended the week steady to slightly stronger, but on low volume. Not unlike light ribs, sideways action may occur the next couple of weeks before the seasonal rebound into March.
Chuck rolls held their value the week before, but they are showing signs of fading. They are expected to trade more sideways the next couple of weeks before declining early/mid-March.
TERES MAJOR MUSCLE:
Graded Teres Major ended the week slightly higher, even more so for Select on limited supplies contributed by cattle grading. Downside risk remains limited at current values, with advances accelerating mid-March.
Briskets remained steady, and are not expected to get much below current values for the time being. Expect a seasonal rebound early March, followed by slight weakness in April.
The market softness on ball tips the previous week was not expected to last. They show firm undertones, with seasonal advances forecasted through the end of March.
Flap brought lower money the previous week on the lack of interest of buyers. The market remains suspect to weakness moving into March.
Choice flank remained steady relative to ample supplies, while Select posted moderate gains with less product available. Weakness remains forecasted in the market until late winter/early spring.
Outside skirt held steady on ample supplies the week before, and has firm undertones this week. However, downside risk remains into March until seasonal increases take hold.
Pork Trends - February 15, 2019
Last week the USDA-reported hog slaughter was at 2.5 MM hogs, up 5% over last year at this time, and slightly higher than the previous week now that winter weather disruptions have lessened.
The November meat exports report was finally released, now that the government shutdown has ended. Pork exports were down 8% versus last November, likely a result of the tariffs imposed against Mexico and China. Values were also down 12%. Korea, the ASEAN (Southeast Asia), continue to be key destinations of growth opportunities for US pork exports.
Japan reported an outbreak of classical swine fever, not to be mistaken with African Swine Fever. The country is culling pigs to contain further spread of the disease. While Japan is not a key producer of hogs and pork, it is a large importer.
After rallying for several weeks, softer demand undertones created weaker pricing on the bone-in and boneless loins last week. Loin prices are no longer at a discount to last year, and so some of the recent value-driven demand is starting to back off. Loin prices are forecast to be relatively steady, but the bone-ins may experience some slight upside, since it remains the best value from the loin.
Pork tenderloin prices were marginally stronger last week. February usually sees some increased demand from retail and exports on tenderloins, so the market may see some marginal price increases in the coming weeks. However, strong supplies could temper any significant upside.
Pork butt prices continued to ease lower last week due to ample supply and weak, demand. Various buying channels continue to keep the market afloat, as current price points are considered a value. Butts are forecasted to start moving higher any day now, as lower prices are starting to reinvigorate both retail and export demand.
Trades on both backribs and spareribs were choppy last week. At the end, prices for backribs ended marginally higher and the spareribs were slightly lower. Supply remains tight for both ribs and, as weather warms, demand and price should increase through early April.
Belly prices slipped lower last week, as increasing supply and decreasing demand push the market lower. Current trades are lower than where they’ve been in the past 8 weeks, so some buyers are stepping back into the market and providing support. Seasonally, the belly market is currently in a timeframe in which steady-to-lower forecasted pricing is expected through April.
The ham market continues weaker, as the bulk of buying raw materials for Easter hams is over. Ham prices are currently 20% below last year and flirting with all-time lows, as recent tariff hikes are pushing trade levels lower. Current price points are considered a value, and should begin to incentivize buyers to step back into the market. As well, spotty demand for Easter hams should slowly accelerate on the approach.
Fat 42% trimming prices were choppy last week, due to steady demand and ample supply. Lean 72% trimming pricing eased lower, right in line with their seasonal curve. Expect prices to remain relatively steady, within a few pennies.
The picnic complex was softer last week due to weaker demand. Prices are expected steady over the next few weeks.
Turkey Trends - February 15, 2019
BONELESS, SKINLESS TURKEY BREASTS
Boneless, skinless turkey breasts were flat this week. In the near term, we should expect this market to trend flat to downward, as seasonal demand is over.
WHOLE FROZEN TURKEYS
Whole turkeys were flat this week. Near-term we expect the market to remain steady to upward, as negotiations for fall bookings get underway.
Chicken Trends - February 15, 2019
Small, medium and jumbo wings were flat this week, with spot market activity increasing near-term. We expect wing demand to continue through March Madness, and then start the downward trend into the summer months. Retailers and Further Processors have backed off the boneless breast markets, leveling off these markets for the near term. Jumbo tenders were up slightly again this week, but like wings, demand has decreased slightly, putting this market in a balanced situation. The select/small boneless breast and tender markets remain short of supply, and well-supported by the ongoing lack of supply and the YTD headcount deficit in the small bird arena.
Export demand on items such as boneless breast and leg quarters are at better-than-normal levels. Thigh and leg meat is trending flat in the near term. Whole birds/WOG demand has decreased; we should expect a flat to downward trend for the near term.
BROILER-TYPE EGGS SET IN THE UNITED STATES UP 1%
Hatcheries in the United States weekly program set 228 million eggs in incubators during the week ending February 9, 2019, up 1% from a year ago. Average hatchability for chicks hatched during the week in the United States was 82.1 percent. Average hatchability is calculated by dividing chicks hatched during the week by eggs set three weeks earlier.
** Starting in 2018, the 19-State totals have been discontinued. **
BROILER-TYPE CHICKS PLACED IN THE UNITED STATES UP 3%
Broiler growers in the United States weekly program placed 183 million chicks for meat production during the week ending February 9, 2019, up 3% from a year ago. Cumulative placements from the week ending January 5, 2019 through February 9, 2019 for the United States were 1.10 billion, up 1 percent from the same period a year earlier.
** Starting in 2018, the 19-State totals have been discontinued. **
WHOLE CHICKEN & CUT-UP PARTS
Small bird demand continues to be strong and supply is still tight. We can expect this trend to continue through 2019. The demand for whole birds and WOG's has weakened, which supports the expectation of decreased pricing in the near term.
BONELESS, SKINLESS BREASTS & CHICKEN TENDERLOINS
The select/small boneless breast market was flat this week. This market continues to be supported by the YTD headcount deficit in the small bird category. We can expect the select/small market to trend flat to upward in the near term. The jumbo and medium boneless breast markets were also flat this week. This week, additional medium and jumbo boneless made an appearance, leveling off markets for the near term. The forward outlook suggests this market will continue to rise, as retailers and the foodservice segment continue their support going into the spring and summer months.
The select/small tenderloin market was up slightly this week. Further Processors and retailers in the small poultry category continue to support this market, with expectations of a flat to upward movement in the near term. The jumbo tenderloin market was up slightly this week, as supply and demand appear to be balanced. Going forward, we can expect seasonal market increases through the spring and summer. We can expect this market to trend flat to upward in the near term also.
The small wing market was flat this week, with market increases at a standstill for the near term. Promotional activity is expected to continue through March Madness on both small and jumbo wings. We should expect this market to trend flat to upward in the near term. The jumbo wing market was flat this week, with excess fresh product growing in volume this week. In the near term, there is a chance of slight market declines, but for the most part we do expect supply and demand to remain relatively balanced through March Madness. We can expect this market to trend flat to upward (as we get closer to the beginning of March Madness) in the near term, too.
BONELESS, SKINLESS THIGHS
The boneless, skinless and bone-in thigh markets were flat this week. We can expect these markets to trend flat to upward in the near term.
SOY, CANOLA & PALM OIL Trends -
February 15, 2019
The soybean complex closed mixed last week, as oil continued to gain on the meal, while soybean prices eased a bit. Friday’s highly anticipated USDA reports failed to provide any real spark in either direction. 2018/2019 soybean ending stocks were lowered 45 million bushels, to 910 million, as lower exports were offset by higher crush and lower yield. Soybean oil ending stocks were raised 180 million pounds, as higher production more than offset larger biodiesel and food use demand.
U.S./China trade war talks resumed in Beijing. Since the initial meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping last December, China looks to have booked a total of 10 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for scattered 2019 shipment. There is no change in the March 1 deadline for a deal….yet.
- The March soybean oil contract made a new high for a sixth consecutive week, penetrating the $.3100 level in the process, as traders continued to buy oil and sell meal. Prices eased a bit into the end of the week, but technical and seasonal indicators point squarely higher. Soybean oil’s share of product value moved to its highest level in over a year this week, hitting 33.5% in the spot position, and is now up a full 3% from a month ago.
- The USDA reported the November (lagging data) domestic soybean crush at 178.1 million bushels, a 16th consecutive monthly year-over-year record. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.9 billion pounds, down from 2.048 billion in October, and well below trade expectations as domestic demand continues to impress. The soybean oil yield was reported at 11.57 pounds per bushel, down from 11.63 in October, but still well above 11.40 in November of 2017.
- Soybean oil basis levels were steady to 25 points lower this week, with offers averaging +0 to -25 in the East and at -25 to -50 in the West through the balance of Q1, 2019. Offers for Q2 remained 25 points higher than Q1 on average.
Statistics Canada reported December 31, 2018 canola stocks at a record high 14.553 million metric tons, up from 13.869 MMT last year. This and the current political dispute between Canada and China (over the Huawei executive’s arrest) are helping to keep canola oil basis levels in check for now.
The palm oil market was closed for much of the week for a holiday, but futures prices ran up to 7-month highs once they reopened Thursday morning. Of note, Indonesian palm oil stocks fell 16% in December to 3.26 million metric tons, the lowest level in 15 months. Firming soybean oil prices and increased palm use in biodiesel production continue to lend underlying support to the palm oil markets as well.
Dairy Trends - February 15, 2019
Butter output is active, as cream supplies are abundantly available for churning and able to meet immediate demand. Butter inventories are increasing, as plant managers are recovering from the 2018 baking season and start to build cold storage stock for the spring holidays.
Block and barrel prices have been showing steady increases for the past two weeks, and are at the highest point so far this year. However, with sales falling off, and the magnitude of cheese in storage across the country, this seems like a short-term move. Overall demand is seen as steady to seasonally declining, while milk supplies continue to overhang the market. This should keep production rates elevated and limit additional rallies in the cheese markets. Inventories are currently manageable, but with the lack of export business due to a stronger dollar and competitive global prices, it could be difficult to draw the excess supplies down in a timely manner. Prices should start to stabilize, and possibly work lower, as the overall fundamentals do not support a continued rally.
Demand has been mixed, as the higher prices were causing end users to reevaluate forward promotional activity. Planners and distributors are taking a more wait-and-see approach, pushing prices down. The large laying flock in the U.S. and more than adequate shell egg production should continue to keep the market in flux. Easter demand will likely start to support prices at some point in Q1, but for the time being the market has adequate supplies to meet current needs.
MILK & CREAM
Milk production was seen as steady to increasing throughout the country this past week, as the seasonal increases continue. Much of the holiday-related cream production has been wrapped up, pointing towards less demand and lower prices in upcoming weeks.
Seafood Trends - February 15, 2019
(WHITES AND BROWNS):
Fishing is very slow, with very little production. Inventory is starting to tighten up, thus causing higher pricing. We can expect higher pricing through new spring pack.
The market is firming as inventory tightens. We can expect higher pricing until new pack begins in the spring.
(BLACK TIGER AND WHITES):
Production of black tigers is still not at the level of the 80’s and 90’s, but we are seeing product in the country and some discounting to price due to lack of movement.
Farmed Asian and Latin American whites are stable to slightly lower, due to good inventory in the US.
(MEXICAN BROWNS AND WHITES):
The last shrimping trips are finishing up. There is a concern on browns, as well as large size shrimp that are in very tight supply.
Inventory of frozen fillets is in very good shape, as well as fish in the ponds. Supply is fair on most sizes of fillets. 2-5 oz. whole fish are very tight.
We are seeing stable pricing on imported catfish. 3-5 oz. fillets are tight, but there is plenty of supply of larger fillets.
ATLANTIC FARMED SALMON:
Reports are now starting to come out that we could see record high prices in 2019. Pricing on fresh fillets is stable to lower again. 4 oz. frozen portions out of Chile are emerging as a challenge, due to the demand on large size fresh fish coming from other countries, who are large importers of Atlantic salmon out of Chile.
Pricing continues to trend lower as inventory levels are in very good shape.
Pricing has turned steady to slightly lower. U-10 dry scallops are seeing pressure on inventory and pricing. New season will begin on or about March 1.
Pricing is on the rise due to tariffs. Overall demand is steady.
Inventory domestically is starting to catch up to the impact of tariffs, as many packers are now having to pass those increases along. Demand continues to be strong as tilapia is a lower-cost option to other species such as cod, haddock, flounder and Pangasius, all of which continue to move up.
Pricing remains firm. Inventory is starting to shift to where 3-5’s have dried up with inventory, and the shift to more inventory on 5-7’s and 7-9’s has happened. We are starting to see discounting of larger sizes. Buyer beware of moisture content.
We expect the overall market to remain very firm, with short inventory and high prices. Q1 is seeing firmer prices due to low supply on raw material, in addition to the tariffs. Quota cuts will put additional pressure on supply and pricing.
The fishery for Pacific pollock has produced only smaller fish, just 2-4 oz. fillets. This could cause an inventory issue for frozen loins if they don’t start catching larger fish. Larger fillets of 4-6 oz. and 6-8 oz. are very tight.
Pricing on skin-on fillets and skinless loins is starting to see increases. Q1 will bring much higher prices, due to low supply on raw material in addition to the tariffs. Quota cuts will put additional pressure on supply and pricing.
Inventory domestically is starting to catch up to the impact of tariffs, as many packers are now having to pass those increases along.
(FROZEN STEAKS & LOINS):
Tuna pricing and inventory are stable.
Swordfish pricing is very stable. Inventory levels are in very good shape.
(RED & GOLDEN):
Product is very short in the marketplace across all sizes, as the quota was cut again. Golden king crab to this point had been the best alternative, but pricing there is now starting to firm.
(BLUE & RED, PASTEURIZED):
Demand is slowing on the larger sizes, and as a result we are seeing a slight decrease in price. Small pick inventory is firm. Claw meat is stable to higher.
Inventory is becoming nonexistent, and we expect to see this continue for the rest of the year.
Mexico blue crab season is beginning to slow, as is common this time of year. Pricing is stable and supply is very good.
All vendors are currently out, as new production has not made it down to the Lower 48. The outlook for the future looks good, as the biomass for younger crab looks very positive. The entire fleet is now out fishing.
Inventory on 5-8 clusters seems to be plentiful. Pricing was very unstable. However, larger sizes—8-up, 10-up and 12-up clusters—are tight in supply.
NORTH AMERICAN LOBSTER:
Overall the catch in the North Atlantic was a bust. We are seeing very little production. The Valentine’s Day holiday could add some pressure.
LOBSTER TAILS WARM WATER:
Supply on warm water tails is in a decent place. Due to high demand, pricing is firming. We now have MSC product in our Harbor Banks® brand.
We are seeing some poor quality meat on the market. Markets are still uncertain. Buyer beware on something that seems “too good to be true.”
Import & product price trends - November 16, 2018
- President Donald Trump announced early in 2018 he would impose tariffs on imports to shrink the trade deficit.
- Three rounds of tariffs have been implemented so far:
- 1. March 23rd, ~$3 billion of products: imported Steel (25%) and Aluminum (10%).
- 2. The next round of ~$50 billion in products from China - mostly machinery and parts - was put on in two stages:
- July 6th, ~$34 billion of imported products (25%).
- August 23rd, ~$16 billion (also 25%).
- 3. September 24th, an additional ~$200 billion in products from China (10%)
- 1. March 23rd, ~$3 billion of products: imported Steel (25%) and Aluminum (10%).
- The administration planned to increase them to 25% on January 1, 2019, if no agreement was met.
- Trump announced on December 2 that these additional tariffs would be delayed 90 days in order to give the two countries a chance to come to an agreement on trade.
- Talks have continued with the Chinese, but no agreement has been made.
- Trump has said that if a deal is not made, the additional tariffs will go into effect March 1.
- China has retaliated against the US tariffs, initially matching the first $50 billion, and then an additional $60 billion against the latest round ($200 billion).
- Price increases on affected products are industry-wide, and vendors will see the impacts of these tariffs on raw materials at different stages depending on multiple factors.
- Price increases on affected products are industry-wide, and vendors will see the impacts of these tariffs on raw materials at different stages, depending on multiple factors.
- There are no changes to any implemented price changes at this time.
- As vendors increase their prices due to tariffs, we pass them on to customers.
Products with Price Increases Through 11/15/18
USF Product Group Impacted
PIM Categories Impacted
Metals - Iron, Steel, Aluminum
Foil Bags, Foil Carryout Containers, Foil Roll, Trays and Pans, Foil Wraps and Sheets, Basket Liners
|Metals - Iron, Steel, Aluminum
Heavy Equipment, Smallwares, Parts & Supplies
|Metals - Iron, Steel, Aluminum
|Metals - Iron, Steel, Aluminum
PC Savory Condiments
|Metals - Iron, Steel, Aluminum
Canned Tomatoes, Dry Pack Beans, EB Canned Fruit, Ketchup, Shelf-Stable Entrées, Canned Pasta, Oil, Dessert Toppings, Cocoa
|Metals - Iron, Steel, Aluminum
Value Added Shelf-Stable
Sauces, Shelf-Stable: Gelatin, Pudding & Pie Filling, Shelf-Stable
|Metals - Iron, Steel, Aluminum
Canned Fruit and Veg., Pudding & Custard, Cheese, Sauces, Beans
Straws and Stirrers
Straws, Drinking, Plastic/PLA - Straws, Stirrers, Plastic/PLA
|Metals - Iron, Steel, Aluminum
Value Added Shelf-Stable
EB Gelatin, Pudding & Pie Filling, Shelf-Stable & EB Sauces, Shelf-Stable
Bags, Food Storage (PE) and (PP), Bags T-Shirt, Buckets, Can Liners, Cups, Dust Pans, Food Containers, Lids, Pastry Bags, Urinal Deodorizer, Aprons, Bibs, Headware (Disposable), Trays & Film
Bags, Cups, Drinking Straws, Facial Tissue, Food Containers, Lids, Napkins, Paper Towels, Pizza Boxes & Circles, Toilet Seat Covers, Toilet Tissue, Register Tape (Disposable), Labels, Paper Wraps & Boxes
Fibers / Molded Fiber
100% Cotton Fabrics, Cups & Bowls, Food Containers, Plates, Platters, Lids
Latex, Nitrile, PE, Vinyl/Synthetic
Finfish & Shellfish
Catfish, Flounder, Haddock, Tilapia, Pasteurized Crabmeat, Scallops, Squid, Crawfish
Canned Fruit & Veg.
Mandarins, Nuts, Cauliflower, Other Fruits & Veg.