COMMODITY OIL TRENDS

Farmer's Report

SOY, CANOLA & PALM OIL Trends -
October 11, 2019

SOY OIL

  • The October soybean oil contract closed higher the week of Sept. 30, 2019, up 80 points at the close of the week.
  • Media reports stated the U.S. and China were to resume trade talks Thursday, Oct. 10, 2019.
  • The U.S. soybean harvest was reported at 7% complete the week of September 30, 2019 vs. the five-year average of 20%. Analysts are looking for the USDA to trim soybean yields by 0.5 to 1.0 bushel on the Oct. 10, 2019 updated supply/demand report, taking 2019/2020 soybean ending stocks down 125 to 150 million bushels.
  • Trades are showing domestic spot soybean crush margins have now dropped nearly 40% since posting a high near $1.26 per bushel in late May.
  • Media reports state the Trump administration has moved closer to a deal on domestic biofuel policy that would increase the mandated blending rate starting in 2020.
  • NOPA reported the August domestic soybean crush at a monthly record high of 168.1 million bushels. End of August soybean oil stocks were stated at 1.4 billion pounds, down 67 million from July.

CANOLA

It is being reported that wet and snowy weather conditions are hindering the Canadian canola crop harvest, where total production is expected to be at a four-year low. Analysts report canola oil basis still remains soft, as seed stocks will continue to build until Canada resolves their dispute with China.

PALM OIL

Analysts report that the palm oil markets continue to see underlying support from firmer soybean oil prices. Preliminary September export data was slightly below analysts’ expectations. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board was to release their official September production and export data on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2019.

The data contained in the Farmer’s Report is provided for informational purposes only, is not tailored to your specific purchasing needs, and is not intended as a substitute for any other publicly-available market data or information. The Farmer’s Report is compiled from the last-received market data provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and/or other market sources, and is subject to change without notice. Nothing herein is the opinion of US Foods®. US Foods neither assumes any legal liability nor makes any warranty or guaranty, either express or implied, regarding the completeness, accuracy or usefulness of this information.