COMMODITY OIL TRENDS
SOY, CANOLA & PALM OIL Trends -
June 14, 2019
The soybean complex closed lower the week of June 3, 2019 following the setback in corn and wheat futures. A window of drier-than-recent weather conditions in the Midwest should allow the planting pace to pick back up.
- On May 10, 2019, US tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods were moved up to a 25% rate from 10% previously, while the US also stated that they were working on 25% tariffs for an additional $325 billion worth of Chinese goods going forward.
- The week of June 3, 2019, soybean planting was estimated at 39% completed, and is now expected to be closer to 55%.
- The USDA’s latest crush report put end-of-April soybean oil stocks at 2.258 billion pounds, up 25 million from the 2.233 billion reported in March, but still well below last year’s levels.
- Soybean oil use for biodiesel production was in excess of 650 million pounds, a record for the month, and up 20% from a year ago.
- The significant delays in this year’s corn crop may lead to higher than anticipated soybean acreage.
- Crude oil pricing continued to decline, dropping below $54.00 per barrel for the first time since March.
The Canadian Prairies are still much drier than average at this time, which could lead to yield impact, but with the China trade war, the surplus will still be extremely high, with plenty of seed to crush.
Global supplies of palm oil remain ample, and it will take time to bring them back down to more balanced levels. Indonesian April stocks were higher than expected.