COMMODITY OIL TRENDS

Farmer's Report

SOY, CANOLA & PALM OIL Trends - July 19, 2024

SOY OIL

Soybean oil futures were slightly higher on Wednesday, compared to Wednesday of the prior week.

Reported market drivers:

  • The USDA reported the bean crop at 68% good-to-excellent this week, unchanged from 68% last week, and above the 55% rating at this time last year. The current 14- day weather forecast remains favorable for the crop, with 18% of the crop now setting pods, according to analysts
  • The National Oilseed Processors Association estimates that end-of-June domestic soybean oil stocks were 1.622 billion pounds, down from 1.724 billion in May, and down from 1.690 billion at the end of June 2023
  • The USDA lowered its 2024/2025 soybean oil ending stocks projection by 50 million pounds in its supply/demand report released last Friday
  • Alternative renewable diesel feedstocks, which includes used cooking oil, corn oil, tallow and canola oil, have all moved higher over the past several weeks 
  • Domestic soybean board crush margins remain well above the May low. Spot oil share of product value has moved up over the 41% level  
  • U.S. crude and refined soybean oil basis were higher this week
  • Energy prices have fallen from their recent highs over the past two weeks, which has helped to pressure vegetable oil prices due to weaker margins, according to analysts

CANOLA

  • The canola seed futures were higher this week, following the lead of the soybean oil market
  • Canola oil basis offers were higher this week, and remain at a slight premium to refined soybean oil
  • Canola oil demand into the U.S. West Coast remains solid
  • Weather conditions remain favorable for the Canadian canola crop, according to analysts

PALM OIL

  • The palm oil futures market was slightly higher through Wednesday of this week vs. the prior week, following the other vegetable oil markets
  • The seasonal production cycle for palm oil in both Malaysia and Indonesia, which turned higher in April, should run through early November, and current weather conditions remain mostly favorable, according to analysts
  • Cargo surveyors estimate that Malaysian palm oil exports between July 1 and July 15 were up over 70% compared to the same period in June

Mayo & Margarine

  • The soybean oil and palm oil markets were both higher this week, while butter prices remained firm

The data contained in the Farmer’s Report is provided for informational purposes only, is not tailored to your specific purchasing needs, and is not intended as a substitute for any other publicly-available market data or information. The Farmer’s Report is compiled from the last-received market data provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and/or other market sources, and is subject to change without notice. Nothing herein is the opinion of US Foods®. US Foods neither assumes any legal liability nor makes any warranty or guaranty, either express or implied, regarding the completeness, accuracy or usefulness of this information.