COMMODITY OIL TRENDS

Farmer's Report

SOY, CANOLA & PALM OIL Trends - March 1, 2024

SOY OIL

Soybean oil futures were higher on Wednesday, compared to Wednesday of the prior week.

Reported market drivers:

  • There was some long-anticipated speculative fund short covering in the soybean oil futures this week, as the spot March contract went into the delivery phase on Friday, February 23, according to analysts
  • Chinese buying of U.S. soybeans has been limited in recent weeks, while overseas shipping schedules confirmed that three cargoes of Brazilian soybeans were headed to the U.S. East Coast, according to analysts
  • Soybean oil’s spot share of product value moved back up over the 40% level this week, as oil/meal spread activity picked up, while the spot domestic soybean board crush margins recovered from the recent lows, according to analysts 
  • U.S. crude and refined soybean oil basis offers were steady over the past week, as analysts continue to anticipate domestic soybean oil stocks to build through March
  • A recovery in energy prices this week helped to support the vegetable oil markets, due to expanded margins, according to analysts
  • The USDA is scheduled to release its January domestic soybean crush data on Friday, March 1. Private analysts expect soybean oil stocks to rise following the release of the report, as they expect it to confirm the numbers released by the National Oilseed Processors Association on February 15
  • AgRural, a Brazilian agricultural consultancy, reports that the Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing rapidly, and is approximately 40% complete. Meanwhile, favorable weather continues for the newly-planted Argentinian crop, according to analysts

CANOLA

  • The spot canola seed futures recovered from last week’s lows through Wednesday of this week, following the lead of the soybean oil market
  • Canola oil basis offers remained mostly steady this week, and are now back on par with the refined soybean oil market
  • U.S. demand for Canadian canola oil remains steady for both food and fuel use, according to analysts

PALM OIL

  • The palm oil futures market remained firm through Wednesday of this week vs. the prior week, continuing the recent trend
  • Palm oil’s lower seasonal production cycle generally ends in late March, according to analysts
  • The Indonesian Palm Oil Association expects their 2024 palm oil production to rise by 5%, to 57.6 million metric tons, following a 7% increase in 2023. They anticipate that the higher production levels will be largely offset by higher consumption for biofuel use

Mayo & Margarine

  • The soybean and palm oil markets were both slightly higher this week. Butter prices were also higher this week

The data contained in the Farmer’s Report is provided for informational purposes only, is not tailored to your specific purchasing needs, and is not intended as a substitute for any other publicly-available market data or information. The Farmer’s Report is compiled from the last-received market data provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and/or other market sources, and is subject to change without notice. Nothing herein is the opinion of US Foods®. US Foods neither assumes any legal liability nor makes any warranty or guaranty, either express or implied, regarding the completeness, accuracy or usefulness of this information.