CHICKEN TRENDS

Farmer's Report

Chicken Trends - October 11, 2019

Poultry market information is from the week of Oct. 7, 2019.

This week, small wings declined. Jumbo and medium wing markets remained unchanged. Medium and jumbo boneless breast slightly declined. In the near term, analysts forecast these markets should trend flat to downward. Analysts are referencing the USDA projections of increased jumbo headcount, along with decreased demand going into the fall season, could push jumbo breast prices lower this fall. Jumbo and small tenders continued to decline this week, as demand continues to be unsettled, according to reports. Analysts state the demand in this market from retail and Further Processors has continued to be weak; however, they also state that this could change rapidly if Further Processors step back into these markets.

Export demand continues to be reported as balanced, with domestic demand declining slightly. Leg quarters, thigh meat and bone-in thighs were slightly down again this week. With increasing jumbo supply, analysts predict these markets could trend flat to downward in the near term. Whole birds/WOG demand is balanced for now. As supply increases, this could result in a flat to slightly downward market trend.

BROILER-TYPE EGGS SET IN THE UNITED STATES Up 1%

Hatcheries in the United States weekly program set 219 million eggs in incubators during the week ending Oct. 5, 2019, up 1% from a year ago. Average hatchability for chicks hatched during the week in the United States was 82.6%. Average hatchability is calculated by dividing chicks hatched during the week by eggs set three weeks earlier.

**Starting in 2018, the 19-State totals have been discontinued.**

BROILER-TYPE CHICKS PLACED IN THE UNITED STATES Up 5%

Broiler growers in the United States weekly program placed 179 million chicks for meat production for the week ending Oct. 5, 2019, up 5% from a year ago. Cumulative placements from the week, ending Jan. 5, 2019 through Oct. 5, 2019 for the United States were 7.46 billion, up 2% from the same period a year earlier.

** Starting in 2018, the 19-State totals have been discontinued. **

WHOLE CHICKEN & CUT-UP PARTS

Analysts report that small bird supply and demand is still out of balance, pushing pricing higher when demand is harder to fulfill. Analysts believe this trend should be expected to continue through 2019. The market for larger-size whole birds and WOGs is in a balanced market. As jumbo bird availability increases, analysts believe this could develop into slight decreases in pricing for the near term.

BONELESS, SKINLESS BREASTS & CHICKEN TENDERLOINS

The select/small boneless breast market was flat this week. It is reported that this market continues to be supported by the YTD headcount deficit in the small bird category. As the market moves into what is historically a lower demand boneless breast season, analysts believe the select/small market could trend flat to slightly downward in the near term. The medium boneless breast market was slightly down, with spot load offerings remaining balanced. The jumbo boneless breast category was slightly down this week, with spot product being uncovered easily. 

This week, select/small and jumbo tenderloin markets were down. Analysts reference Further Processors and retailers continue to move in and out of these markets, which could result in a flat to downward trend in the near term.

WINGS

The small wing market was down this week. Analysts expect this market will trend flat to downward for the near term. The medium wing market was flat this week, with spot load offers being consistently harder to uncover. Analysts’ expectations are that the medium market will remain flat to upward in the near term. The jumbo wing market remained unchanged this week. Spot product offerings have become more abundant, with various degrees of discounting reported. The jumbo wing market is expected to trend flat to downward in the near term.

BONELESS, SKINLESS THIGHS

The boneless, skinless thigh meat market was down this week. Analysts speculate that this market could be hampered by lack of Further Processor demand and jumbo supply increasing. Analysts’ expectations are that this market will trend flat to slightly downward in the near term.

The data contained in the Farmer’s Report is provided for informational purposes only, is not tailored to your specific purchasing needs, and is not intended as a substitute for any other publicly-available market data or information. The Farmer’s Report is compiled from the last-received market data provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and/or other market sources, and is subject to change without notice. Nothing herein is the opinion of US Foods®. US Foods neither assumes any legal liability nor makes any warranty or guaranty, either express or implied, regarding the completeness, accuracy or usefulness of this information.