Hero Image

Pork Trends 

Farmer's Report - July 10, 2026

 

All pork pricing trends are based on USDA data as of July 3, 2026.

The USDA reported a weekly hog harvest of 1.974 MM hogs last week. This level is roughly 17.4% lower than the prior week due to reduced production schedules during the week of July 4. Running harvest level year-to-date is down 0.3% compared to last year.

 

Loins arrow steady

Bone-in loins pivoted lower, while boneless loins pivoted higher, and both markets remain below historical averages. Seasonal demand and supply are good, according to analysts. Variable promotion is reported for the retail channel. Historically, the bone-in loin market continues to edge marginally higher well into July, while the boneless loins have tended to be more rangebound.

Tenders arrow down

The pork tenderloin market continued to decline seasonally. Supply is good, while demand has been good but variable, according to analysts. Historically, pork tenderloins turn slightly bearish during July as seasonal momentum peaks.

Butts arrow down

The bone-in butt market slipped slightly lower, as the rapid selloff in early June has stabilized over the past several weeks. Despite any short-term movement for the holiday, the pork butt markets have historically softened during July.

Ribs arrow steady

Backribs and St. Louis-style spareribs decreased, while light and medium-sized whole spareribs held steady or moved higher. Industry demand will be shifting to consumption of outstanding frozen inventories, thus taking pressure off the fresh markets, according to analysts, who note that the risk of seasonal volatility is increasing. Historically, the rib markets tend to begin their seasonal decline around Independence Day, which continues through July or longer.

Bellies/Bacon arrow up

The belly markets recovered slightly higher. Supply is good and cold storage inventories are slowly recovering ahead of prior-year levels, according to analysts. The USDA-reported frequency of bacon features in the retail channel continues to be strong. Although seasonal lift has been tempered thus far, the belly markets historically are at their peak during July and August.

Hams arrow up

The ham markets surged higher. Demand is improving, as the recent market has been considered a value, according to analysts, who note that forward demand for holiday hams is also driving interest. Supply remains good on a seasonal basis, with stronger inventories being reported in cold storage. Historically, the ham markets have experienced steady to stronger support in July. Increasing deli ham and lunchmeat demand will also be a driver as warmer weather persists, according to analysts.

Trimmings arrow down

Both the 72% lean and 42% fat trimmings markets fell sharply. Reduced processor production schedules due to Independence Day temporarily erased a good bit of demand, according to analysts, who note that supply is good and demand is expected to fully recover on a seasonal basis. Traditionally, the pork trimming markets strengthen in July and August, as grilling demand stays strong and harvest levels scale back.

Picnics arrow up

Bone-in picnics remained unchanged, while boneless picnics decreased sharply. The bone-in picnic market has been rallying since early May, but has struggled to maintain upward momentum over the past month. Historically, the bone-in picnic market ebbs and flows higher throughout the calendar year, peaking near late December. The boneless picnics are heavily used by Further Processors, similar to trimmings, and likely saw some holiday pullback as processors reduced production schedules for Independence Day, according to analysts. Historically, boneless picnics are bullish in August.

Commodity Trends at Your Fingertips: Dive into the Farmer's Report